(Commodities Weekly) Holding the Line 🛡️

The S&P GSCI Commodity Index just bounced from a critical level… again.

You don’t need to be a technician to see the importance of 500 on this chart. 

It was the top in 2018. It was the ceiling again in 2021. 

Since then, it’s become the most important shelf of support in the entire commodity complex.

Now, after retesting this level multiple times in the last two years, we’re once again sitting on the edge.

Polarity is like magic 🔮

Support and resistance are not random. 

This 500-level has acted as a magnet for prices in recent years. 

If this shelf gives way, it opens the door to a much deeper reset in the commodities market.

However, for now, the level is holding steady.

Let’s talk about what this index is made of...

The S&P GSCI is primarily focused on one thing above all else: Energy.

• Energy makes up 57.4% of the index in 2025, led by:
  • WTI Crude Oil (15.3%)
  • Brent Crude Oil (13.4%)
  • Natural Gas (5.9%)
  • RBOB Gasoline, Heating Oil, and more

Agriculture and Industrial Metals trail far behind, with sector weights of 16.7% and 11%, respectively.

Even Livestock and Precious Metals are small pieces of the pie, accounting for just 9.3% and 5.9%, respectively.

This is crucial context. 

When energy rolls over, it drags the entire index down, and that’s what’s been happening lately.

The S&P GSCI Index is back at a key inflection point.

If 500 holds, we may see a renewed rally across the board, particularly in beaten-down commodities such as the Energy complex.

But if it breaks?

Then the entire commodity complex could be in for a multi-quarter unwind, led by the massive weight of the Energy sector.

What are you seeing in commodities? Let us know what you think. We love hearing from you!

Commitment of Traders Highlights

• Commercial hedgers maintained their largest net-long Bitcoin position ever.
• Commercials added over 5,000 contracts to their net-long K.C. Wheat position. This is their largest net-long position on record.
• Commercial hedgers trimmed nearly 20,000 contracts from their largest net-short Japanese Yen position ever. 

👉 Click here to download the All Star Charts COT Heatmap

Commodities Trade of the Week

This week, we're outlining the $11.5B metal fabrication stock, Carpenter Technology $CRS.

The company specializes in producing high-performance alloys for various industries, including aerospace, energy, medical, and transportation.

Since the stock broke out of a massive base in 2023, the price has surged by over 200%. Over that same timeframe, it has dramatically outperformed its peers.

The price has recently been consolidating below a key Fibonacci extension level. This is where we want to define our risk and position ourselves for a fresh leg higher.

Here's how we're trading CRS 👇