A tribute to ASC Gold Rush's standout setups

Great trades never ring a bell. They don’t come with fanfare. They come wrapped in uncertainty, quiet conviction, and a little discomfort. That’s how you know they matter.

Take Cocoa futures. One of the cleanest breakouts we’ve seen recently, but it didn’t feel clean until after it moved. 

Before that, it was all noise and indecision.

Here’s the setup we outlined in October 👇

We were betting that the breakdown to new lows wasn’t going to stick.

Why? The 14-day RSI was firmly in a bullish momentum regime. 

That’s a characteristic of an uptrend… Not a downtrend!

Moreover, this was a textbook consolidation after a historic 190% bull run which unfolded over 4 months.

Here’s how the setup unfolded 👇

The price ripped back above support and hit our target at the upper bound of the range in just a few weeks.

It was an epic bear trap…

Admittedly, this worked much better than we expected.

We...

After a historic rally fueled by Coffee and Cocoa, our Soft Commodity Index is finally hitting a major wall. 

With the price stalling at the 2011 highs and signs of distribution setting in, it’s time to shift our focus from chasing strength to hunting weakness. 

One commodity, in particular, is standing out on the downside, and it's giving us a sweet setup to take advantage of.

Let's talk about it...

Our Soft Commodity Index is an equal-weight basket of Cotton, Coffee, Cocoa, and Sugar.

It has increased in price by more than 150% over the last 5 years. This was primarily driven by historic uptrends in Coffee and Cocoa, which rallied 350% and 500%, respectively.

The complex was the home to some of the best trends in commodities for years.

Now, the...

There's so much happening in the commodities markets right now. 

Orange Juice futures just ripped 50% in several days and triggered our buy signal.

Crude Oil futures have resolved a textbook multi-year distribution pattern and triggered our sell signal.

To name a few...

We're also on the cusp of getting a fresh buy signal in Soybean Oil futures.

"Big Oil" wants more renewable diesel - from 3.3 to over 5 billion gallons.

If that's the case, demand will skyrocket for grains across the board.

The first week of 2025 was the largest 1-week rate of change since 1983 for Soybean Oil futures.

We love to call the beginning of each year "whipsaw hunting season."

This is where trends that are overextended, in either direction, tend to...

Amid historic market volatility, we're looking for uncorrelated trades.

Whether that's Crude Oil, Lumber, or Orange Juice.

Trading commodities doesn't just offer lucrative risk versus reward opportunities, but it also has a very low correlation to other asset classes.

For example, Orange Juice was in a steady uptrend from 2020 until the end of 2024. 

It didn't care about the bear market in 2022. 

And it certainly doesn't care about the bear market in 2025.

This was the best week for the juice since 1998, and we think it has the potential to rally more for the foreseeable future.

What a week for the global asset markets.

On Wednesday, the United States announced new tariffs against dozens of countries. This set off a wave of selling pressure, which appears to have no end in sight.

Silver is down nearly 15% this week...

Copper was down nearly 15% this week...

Lumber was down 13% this week...

The energy complex was down nearly 10% across the board this week...

Even Gold fell 2% this week.

It was quick. It was nasty. And it's not over.

For the bears out there, it's hard to find a better setup than Crude Oil futures.

Crude Oil futures have broken a confluence...

Copper futures are breaking out to new all-time highs. Is this a signal for the whole Base Metals complex?

We think so and here's why.

When Copper leads, the rest of the base metals often follow. 

We've seen this happen in numerous cycles. The last occurrence was in 2020.

This trade is even better when Gold is the first one out of the gate, which is the case this cycle. We discussed it a few weeks ago - be sure to check out that post if you haven't already.

The evidence for a base metals rally has been stacking up recently. Aluminum is shaping up nicely, and we think it could be one of the next to go.

From there, we expect Steel, Nickel, Tin, Zinc, and all of the rest to follow.

This index holds an equally-weighted basket...

Investors in the United States are panicking because their tech stocks are sucking.

Their irresponsibly large positions in Microsoft and Nvidia have come around to bite them in the rear.

Which investors have been sheltered from this pain? The ones who own Energy stocks! 

These shareholders have, for the most part, been treated poorly over the last 15 years. 

However, that wasn't the case in the post-COVID bull market. It also hasn't been the case so far this year.

As you can see, the Energy Sector SPDR $XLE is up over 8% this year. It's the best-performing sector.

Conversely, Technology $XLK and Consumer Discretionary $XLY have been significant laggards. They're the only sectors trailing the S&P 500.

We think this relative strength from energy can persist. Here's why 👇

The NYSE Natural Gas Index $XNG and the NYSE Oil & Gas Index $XOI are both in the process of resolving multi-decade basing patterns.

Structural trend reversals can be messy, but the path of...

Copper futures have so many tailwinds working for it right now. We think it's ready to breakout to new all-time highs.

We've talked about the strong positive correlation it has with Chinese stocks. This remains the case. 

In addition, base and industrial metals have been ripping. Just look at the setup in Aluminum futures. 

We think it would make sense for Dr. Copper to lead its peers higher. This has already been playing out in precious metals.

The shiny yellow rock has been leading its peers higher, and now Silver futures are a stone's throw away from multi-decade highs. 

Gold futures hit 3,000 for the first time to make things even sweeter. Surpassing...

Stock market bulls have been watching the homies like hawks. 

It's a vital industry right now.

Alfonso recently wrote about the Home Construction ETF $ITB breaking to new lows relative to its defensive peer group, the Real Estate ETF $IYR.

He said, "This ratio has historically been a leading indicator for the broader market. During prior cycles, you can see clear divergences where ITB/IYR tops or bottoms ahead of major turns in the S&P 500." 

See the chart for yourself. The data doesn't lie. 

If the equity bull market in the United States is going to continue, this group cannot complete a massive top.

Here's the setup that everyone is watching 👇

As you can see, the iShares U.S. Home Construction Index $ITB has carved out a prolonged potential distribution pattern. 

The index...

A lot is happening right now.

The bears are destroying Orange Juice futures, while Coffee futures are at an all-time high. Soft commodities are super bifurcated at the moment.

The entire agricultural commodity complex is shaping up quite nicely. Corn and Soybean futures look poised to lead the way higher.

We're also seeing China's economy roar back to life. Steve's Breakout Multiplier system has been crushing it...

We've been obnoxiously bullish on soft commodities recently. 

And it's for a good reason. 

Coffee just broke out of a nearly 50-year basing pattern. It's hard to bearish when the price is making new all-time highs.

But the group is becoming bifurcated.

Orange juice futures were the early leader in the soft space. The price made a new all-time high in 2022.

Unfortunately (for the bulls), the uptrend in OJ seems to be over, at least for now.

As you can see, orange juice futures resolved a nearly 50-year basing pattern in 2022. This pattern is almost identical to coffee futures. ...

February is historically one of the best months of the year for commodities. This year is no different.

Coffee is like a freight train. It keeps chugging along to new all-time highs. 

Natural gas has rallied over 20% so far this month.

Dr. Copper is challenging a key level of interest and flirting with a multi-decade base breakout.

But what continues to stand out the most to us is the grain markets.

Last week, we outlined why we're buying...