Inflation, yields, and the slow death of the last regime.
Today, we have two charts and one message: bond yields are poised to surge.
To understand where yields are headed, don’t start with the Fed - start with commodities.
When tangible assets coil like this, they’re not waiting for permission to move.
First up is the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index (AKA the CRB Index):
The CRB Index is currently situated within one of the tightest monthly Bollinger Band squeezes in over two decades.
The last three times we saw a setup like this - 2002, 2009, 2020 - it unleashed a decisive move in commodities, each time followed by rising yields and accelerating inflation expectations.
This isn’t noise. It’s a signal to us that a big move is coming.
Extreme volatility compression like this precedes dramatic volatility expansion.
Our final chart is the 30-Year Treasury Yield:
After decades of trending lower, the 30-year yield isn’t in a downtrend anymore.
Many investors are struggling to adjust to this new regime. Good.
What we have now is a clear series of higher lows pressing into multi-year resistance. The structure is in place, and the breakout has already begun.
One chart shows energy building, and the other confirms the direction.
This reminds us of a moment in the movie Fight Club when Tyler Durden says:
“It’s only after we’ve lost everything that we’re free to do anything.”
In markets, that moment occurs when the old regime comes to an end.
When the data no longer fits the story.
When the illusion of control cracks.
That’s where we are now. The low-rate, low-inflation, central-bank-as-hero regime is breaking down.
And the signs are clear - if you’re paying attention.
This isn’t chaos. It’s a transition.
If you're still trading like it's 2020, you're using the wrong playbook.
The system is shifting, commodities are coiling, and yields are already on the rise.
By the time the crowd notices, the move will already be halfway over.
🚨 Update: Extended Offer 🚨
This special crypto deal was supposed to end today, but Louis insisted we keep it open through the end of the week, as the crypto market is currently on fire.
