(Commodities Weekly) It’s Natty Season - Are You Ready?
August 9, 2025
College football is almost back in the U.S., and in the futures market, that means it’s Natty Season.
August is by far the best month of the year for Natural Gas futures - not even close - and the seasonality data proves it.
That’s why earlier this week, we sat down with one of the sharpest fundamental minds in the energy space, Josh Young, for a live interview.
We dug into what’s driving this market right now and why this could be one of the most compelling setups of the year.
If you trade commodities - especially energy - now’s the time to watch that discussion and get prepared. Watch the full interview here.
When you line up the seasonality tailwinds with the technical picture, the setup is too good to ignore.
Seasonality sets the stage
From 2016 to 2025, August stands head and shoulders above every other month for average Natural Gas performance. The next closest month doesn’t even come close.
We think the stage is set for another big month for this commodity, and here's why.
Natural Gas futures have carved out a massive accumulation pattern
Natural Gas futures are in the process of resolving a classic bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.
True to form, “the widowmaker” isn’t making it easy - price action has been sloppy.
But that’s typical for this commodity, and importantly, we’re at the upper bounds of a multi-year accumulation range.
Historically, that’s not where massive tops form - those usually come after sustained, vertical uptrends.
3 is key
Over the shorter timeframe, prices are flirting with the resolution of a well-defined distribution pattern. But given the broader context, this is more likely a continuation pattern in disguise.
Add in August seasonality, and the odds favor buyers stepping in again at this support level.
Our trade plan is simple... we want to own natural gas futures above 3, targeting 3.60 and 4.90 over the coming 2-4 months.
If you want to survive (and thrive) in Natty Season, the time to get positioned is now.
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