The Feed Strikes Back

Agriculture has been a tale of two markets recently.

On the one hand, grains - the backbone of the post-pandemic commodity boom - have been in a deep bear market since 2022, giving back much of their post-COVID gains. 

The entire grain complex has spent years grinding lower as supply rebounded and demand cooled.

On the other side, livestock has been unstoppable. 

Since bottoming in 2020, Cattle futures have gone vertical, rallying more than 200%. It has been the strongest bull run since the 1970s, as shrinking herds collided with relentless demand.

Now that the once-in-a-generation Cattle rally looks to be running out of gas, attention is shifting back to the feed markets that were left behind.

Let’s start with the historic uptrend in Feeder Cattle futures:

Feeder cattle prices reached all-time highs this year, stretching farther above their 12-month EMA than at any point since 1979.

That 1979 surge marked the end of a generational uptrend, followed by decades of sideways action. 

We’re seeing echoes of that same exhaustion today.

After such an extraordinary run, a period of mean reversion is perfectly normal - and as Cattle prices ease, it creates space for the feed markets to pick up leadership within the agriculture complex.

Here’s the near-term rotation in motion.

While Cattle futures have started to break lower, Corn futures are quietly stabilizing and turning higher. 

Historically, livestock and grains have had a robust negative correlation. In other words, if one's going up, the other's probably going down.

That's precisely what's playing out right now...

Seeing grains rip higher as livestock rollover is classic behavior at the end of a livestock-driven agriculture cycle.

Inside the grain complex, none look better than the Soybeans.

Soybeans are printing fresh 52-week highs. 

After carving out a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern, Soybean futures are decisively clearing a significant resistance zone that has capped every rally since early 2024. 

So long as the buyers hold this breakout, the path of least resistance is higher for the foreseeable future.

We want to own Soybean futures above 1,080, with a target of 1,250 over the coming 3-6 months.

Soybean Oil was the early leader in the complex. 

As you can see, Soybean Oil completed its base earlier this year, but has returned to the breakout level. 

We're betting that the shelf of former highs from 2024 will turn into support today, and the price will rip higher from here.

We want to own Soybean Oil futures above 49, with a target of 57 over the coming 1-3 months. Over longer timeframes, we're looking at a secondary objective of 65.50.

And that brings us to the most compelling chart of the group.

There's a saying in the Soybean pits in Chicago: "The meal is real." What they mean by this is that Soybean Meal demand reflects actual end-user consumption, not just financial speculation or policy-driven noise.

Right now, the 14-day RSI for this product is at the highest level since 2003. Said differently, there's an overwhelming demand for Soybean Meal relative to supply right now. 

The price has endured a historic multi-year bear market since its 2022 high, cratering nearly 50%.

And last year, the price fell below the 2021 lows. However, the sellers have failed to hold that level, and now a classic scoop-n-score setup is in play.

We want to own Soybean Meal above 310, with a target of 351 over the coming 2-4 months. Over longer timeframes, we're looking at a secondary objective of 375.

These reversals aren’t happening in a vacuum. The fundamentals behind them are shifting, too.

A historic supply squeeze drove the Cattle rally. Now, those pressures are easing as herd sizes slowly rebuild.

At the same time, fresh momentum is building across the feed markets. 

The USDA recently raised its U.S. soybean crush forecast for 2025–26, while reports of renewed trade talks between the U.S. and China under the Trump administration have sparked hopes for stronger export demand. 

Combine that with steady growth in biodiesel refining and tightening global inventories, and it’s easy to see why the Soybean complex is perking up again.

What are you seeing in commodities? Let us know what you think. We love hearing from you!

Commodities Trade of the Week

This week, we're outlining a bellwether of the agribusiness industry that's on the cusp of resolving a textbook multi-year bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.

Premium members can see the entry and target levels below. 👇