Don’t Fight the Primary Trend

As we head into the final stretch of 2025, it’s becoming increasingly clear where the market wants investors to be.

And just as importantly, where it does not.

Over the past several months, we’ve spent a lot of time pounding the table on precious metals and base & industrial metals. 

That hasn’t been by accident, and it hasn’t been based on gut feel or narrative chasing. 

The data has driven our decisions. 

And the market continues to reward those willing to lean into strength rather than fight it.

Last week, we wrote about a structural shift in base metals and argued that this space is entering a new primary uptrend. 

This week, we want to step back and put that call into a broader context, because when you look across the entire commodities landscape, the message couldn’t be clearer.

The market is separating winners from losers in a very decisive way.

If you look at our new highs and lows table, the concentration of strength jumps off the page.

Precious metals are littered with new highs across multiple timeframes. Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium are all confirming sustained upside momentum. 

Base metals are right behind them, with Aluminum, Steel, Tin, and others printing new highs as participation broadens across the complex.

And then there’s everything else...

Energy is seeing a wave of new lows. 

Agriculture is being absolutely punished, with widespread downside across grains, softs, and livestock. 

These are not isolated moves; they are broad, persistent trends that continue to reinforce themselves week after week.

Don't fight the trend!

Our trend summary table tells the same story from a different angle.

Precious metals are bullish across the short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term timeframes. 

Most base and industrial metals are following the same trend. 

Meanwhile, energy and agriculture are dominated by bearish readings, particularly on the longer-term trend horizons that matter most.

This is the market rewarding trend-followers and punishing everyone else.

As we always say, counter-trend trades can be fun, and sometimes they work. 

But (and this is a big but) the big money, the kind that compounds meaningfully over time, is made by riding primary trends, not fighting them. 

When something is in a sustained uptrend, the default assumption should be higher prices. 

When something is in a sustained downtrend, the path of least resistance is lower until proven otherwise.

Right now, the market is being very generous with clarity.

Precious metals are trending.

Base and industrial metals are trending.

Energy and agriculture are not.

Our job isn’t to predict when that changes... 

Our job is to respect what’s happening now and position accordingly.

With that in mind, we're buying more base and industrial metals stocks for the Commodities Trade of the Week.

What are you seeing in commodities? Let us know what you think. We love hearing from you!

Commodities Trade of the Week

This week, we're highlighting one of our favorite setups in the base & industrial metals space. 

Premium members can see the entry and target levels below. 👇