Last week, we focused on oil and gas, and for good reason. Integrated energy stocks are breaking out across the board, services are ripping, and Exxon Mobil $XOM looks poised to join the trillion-dollar club.
That trade is real, it’s working, and we continue to like it.
But it’s not the whole story.
One of the most important signals in any commodity cycle is participation.
When leadership broadens, and multiple energy sub-themes start moving together, it tells us the move is structural, not speculative.
And right now, participation across the energy complex is expanding, not just in “dirty” energy, but increasingly in clean energy as well.
That’s where we want to spend our time today.
To frame this properly, we start with a comparison that tells the story cleanly.
XOM is the biggest stock in traditional oil & gas.
In uranium, that role belongs to Cameco $CCJ.
And in solar, that mantle belongs to First Solar $FSLR.
These are the flagships, the companies that institutions reach for when they want exposure to each theme.
What’s striking is how closely Cameco and First Solar have historically moved together.
For years, these two stocks have danced in tandem, reflecting shifting sentiment toward clean energy, electrification, and long-term power demand.
But recently, that relationship has diverged.
CCJ has already made its move.
The stock is breaking out to new all-time highs and continues to trend higher with strong momentum.
The uranium trade has been one of the cleanest structural stories in the commodity space, and CCJ is acting exactly how a flagship leader should act in a bull market.
FSLR, on the other hand, hasn’t made that final push yet.
Despite a powerful recovery off its lows and a well-defined long-term base, the stock remains capped below its pre-financial-crisis peak.
But when you line this chart up next to CCJ, and next to what we’re seeing across oil, gas, and uranium, it increasingly looks like a catch-up trade, not a broken one.
In other words, we don’t think FSLR is late. We think it’s next.
This idea is already being confirmed beneath the surface, and the best place to see it is in the Invesco Solar ETF $TAN.
The Invesco Solar ETF closed this week above its early-2024 highs, completing a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.
This isn’t a one-day wonder; it’s the resolution of a prolonged period of consolidation after a brutal bear market that shook out nearly every weak hand in the space.
So long as the buyers hold this breakout, the path of least resistance is higher for the foreseeable future.
We want to own TAN above 55, with a target of 90 over the coming 6-12 months. Over longer timeframes, we're looking at a secondary objective of 125.
Clean energy doesn’t need oil and gas to fail in order to work. It just needs capital to keep rotating into energy broadly.
And based on the charts, that’s exactly what’s happening.
For us, this isn’t about choosing sides. It’s about following trends.
Energy participation is broadening, leadership is expanding, and solar looks like the next domino to fall.
For those who want to take advantage of this move in solar, our Commodities Trades of the Week highlights one of our favorite individual stocks in the industry.
Premium members can see the entry and target levels below. 👇
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