The Soybean complex looks poised to lead the grains.
By Sam Gatlin, Jason Perz
February 13, 2026
Last week, we made the case that if energy is going to work, the grains won’t be far behind.
Historically, these two commodity complexes have danced together. It’s very rare to see a durable bull market in energy that doesn’t eventually bleed into agriculture.
Higher energy prices feed directly into fertilizer, transportation, processing, and, ultimately, food costs. These markets are intertwined.
So this week, we’re building on that thesis by zeroing in on where we’re seeing the most compelling strength inside the grains complex. That is Soybeans.
Let's start with our Gold Rush Soybean Index, an equal-weight basket of Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil. The technical picture is about as constructive as it gets.
Our Gold Rush Soybean Index is ripping to new multi-year highs and resolving higher from a textbook multi-year bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.
We’re not talking about a short-term pop inside a bigger downtrend. This is a structural shift in trend.
As long as this breakout holds, the path of least resistance is higher for the foreseeable future.
But leadership isn’t just about going up in absolute terms. It’s about outperforming your peers.
When we look at the Soybean complex relative to the broader Gold Rush Grains Index, which includes Corn, Wheat, Rough Rice, Oats, Canola, and the soybean complex itself, we see an even more powerful setup.
This ratio has been carving out an accumulation pattern that stretches back to the 2016 peak. Nearly a decade of compression and digestion.
Now, the price is pressing up against the upper boundary of that structure.
If this ratio resolves higher, and it’s clearly leaning that way, it would mark a regime change within grains.
That would signal that Soybeans are no longer just participating in a grains recovery. They’re leading it.
And given the massive base that has formed over the past decade, we think this leadership could last for years.
So what's the best way to play this?
Our favorite setup in the Soybean complex is Soybean Oil futures.
After peaking in 2023, Soybean Oil suffered a brutal decline that lasted a year. The unwind was sharp and painful.
But instead of cascading into a more prolonged downtrend, the price spent the last couple of years quietly building a reversal pattern.
Now price is breaking out to fresh 52-week highs and entering a brand-new primary uptrend.
We want to own Soybean Oil futures above 57, with a target of 65.50 over the coming 1-3 months.
If this is truly the expansion phase we’ve been waiting for in commodities, then Soybeans aren’t just catching up.
They’re stepping into a leadership role.
And that’s exactly where we want to be positioned.
Grains - Commercial hedgers added more than 76,000 contracts to their net-short Soybean position. Historically, this is what we see when the price is in a strong primary uptrend.
Softs - Commercials added over 20,000 contracts and set a new record net-long position in Sugar. Massive net-long positions have historically come near major lows.
Currencies - Commercial hedgers added more than 10,000 contracts to one of their largest net-short Australian dollar positions in recent years. This should be bullish for base and industrial metals.
