On weekends like this, we're glad to be technicians.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rumors flying. Headlines all over the place.
Everyone’s trying to figure out what it all means. What’s next? Who’s in control?
But we're chart guys.
We're not in the business of guessing what politicians will do or how the news cycle will spin. That’s not our edge. That’s noise.
The only thing that matters to us is price.
And the charts are speaking loud and clear.
Money rotates. From one asset class to another. It always has. That’s the game. There are periods for equities. Periods for commodities. Even for bonds.
Right now, this ratio of the S&P 500 vs the Invesco DB Commodity Index tells us something might be shifting.
It’s been quiet—but the signs are there.
That ratio stalled at the same level it did in 2020. And again last December.
So far this year, US equities have been lagging commodities.
These trends don’t reverse overnight. They build. They shake you out. They surprise.
Just like five years ago—when crude went negative. Most people panicked. But that was the start of a major leg higher for commodities.
If there’s a place for commodities to kick off another big run—this is it.
And I’m looking at Energy.
The SPDR Energy Sector ETF $XLE has been pressing against the top of a massive base for years.
The big question is: how long will it take for buyers to finally absorb all that overhead supply?
That SPY/DBC ratio might be the tell.
Here are some of the best-looking energy stocks outside of the US.
The team’s been tracking them closely.
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