In most parts of life, the rule is simple — follow the leader.But in the bond market, the game’s a little different. Here, it’s more like carry the follower.

That’s exactly what we’re seeing play out right now between short term and...

If you want to know where bond yields are going next, don’t start with the Fed. Start with copper.

That might sound strange — one’s a metal, the other’s a number on a screen. But they’re deeply connected. Copper is often...

Global 30-Year Yields: One Chart, One Message...

“You have power over your mind — not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.” — Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

For four decades, investors lived in a world where...

For forty years, bond yields trended lower. From the early 1980s until 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield fell through every cycle. 

Each downturn, each policy mistake, was met with the same cure: cut rates, buy bonds, suppress yields...

When Aristotle tutored the young Alexander the Great, he taught him to see the world not just as it was, but as it could be....

Inflation, yields, and the slow death of the last regime.

Today, we have two charts and one message: bond yields are poised to surge.

To understand where yields are headed, don’t start with the Fed - start with commodities...

Everyone keeps assuming the Fed is done. That rates peaked in 2023. That the next move is down. That the cycle has run its course and we’re heading back to easy money.

But here’s the thing: the market says otherwise.

The...

Copper just made history.The price closed June with its highest monthly close ever.

We have the data:

Copper futures are printing fresh all-time highs after resolving a prolonged accumulation pattern.

And when...

Every major commodity boom of the last 25 years has followed the same blueprint:

🔺 CRB Index starts curling higher🔺 Yield curve inverts… then steepens🔺 And commodities don’t just rally—they detonate.

Look at the chart. 

...

Yes, the U.S. had a rough 20-year auction. Yields on the 30-year almost retested their October highs, touching 5.15%. But that’s not the real story.

The real bond crisis is in Japan.

This week, Japan saw its worst 20-year bond auction...