From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are flying under the radar.

While everyone focuses on the S&P 500 finding resistance at its 200-day moving average, bonds are posting their most substantial rally since the early...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

The strong US dollar and higher interest rates have dominated the conversation this year.

But the direction of the US Dollar...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are bouncing off key levels of potential support.

For some, it’s a former low. And for others, it’s a downside extension level. Regardless, we can all rejoice that bonds have stopped...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t take your eyes off the US dollar and interest rates!

I know it’s been a long year, but we’re finally witnessing...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

It’s been a lonely rise for interest rates.

The stocks and...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are an absolute dumpster fire. 

Everyone knows fixed income is having one of its worst years on record. And, from the looks...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds have stopped falling across the board!

That doesn’t mean it’s time to go all in. Tactically, it’s difficult to get behind...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t catch falling knives!

It sounds simple enough. But in reality, traders continue to lose fingers as they reach for downtrending assets.

Diving after downtrends isn’t one of...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

If you can pry your eyes from the UK gilt and Credit Suisse articles, you’ll find it’s not all doom and gloom across the bond market –...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t let credit spreads fool you. 

High-yield debt hasn’t blown out relative to Treasuries. Regardless, the largest markets in the world are buckling under pressure.

You have to look...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced another 75-basis-point rate hike following its September policy meeting. 

Yields across the curve...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Interest rates have resumed their ascent following a brief summer pause. And, in recent weeks, their climb has accelerated.

Aside...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

After Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks this morning, the market is pricing in an 86% chance of a 75-basis-point hike later this month. 

Meanwhile, rates continue to accelerate at...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Heading into Q3, we wanted to play a mean-reversion bounce in US treasury bonds. A long list of reasons supported this position:...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Identifying trends is one of the most important jobs of a market technician. Regardless of our time horizon, we have to understand the general direction the market is taking.

It sounds...

From the Desk of  Ian Culley @Ianculley

The market environment has been shifting in favor of the bulls all summer.

Breadth thrusts are firing as participation beneath the surface expands. Risk assets – commodities and stocks alike...

From the Desk of  Ian Culley @Ianculley

More pieces of the puzzle are falling into place for the bulls.

We’ve been pounding the table about the dollar and rates for...

From the Desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

It’s been an action-packed year for the bond market. Rates have ripped, and bonds have been in free fall worldwide. But US yields stopped going up in June. 

...

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s the day after the FOMC announcement, and markets are mixed. They’ve already moved past yesterday’s 75-basis-point hike and are now in the process of pricing in all available data, including...

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley  

Buying bonds is finally becoming an attractive proposition again.

For months, we’ve noted the lack of confirmation from intermarket ratios such as...

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

No one likes a bear market, except for the bears of course.

They haze the uninitiated, test market veterans, and remind everyone that assets can go to zero.

Not fun for most!

...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Bonds are off to their worst start in the past 40 years, possibly ever! 

It’s not even close. 

As we near the end of Q2, the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

Now that inflation is no longer transitory and we’ve officially entered bear market territory, "...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

The Japanese yen continues to be front and center, as the safe-haven currency can't seem to find its footing.

In a market where risk assets are struggling to...