From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Everyone wants to know where the dollar is headed next.

It’s great investors are showing interest in the dollar, while understanding the impact it has on risk assets at the moment. ...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I haven’t ruled out a US dollar bounce. 

But it seems less likely with each passing day.

Other major...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Perhaps you’ve noticed that I don’t use moving averages.

For starters, I don’t like the way they look.

They muddy the pristine waters of price. And if I can't pick up on the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Is the dollar going to finally bounce?

As I pointed out last week, if there was ever a place or time – it's’...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m not big into seasonality.

I pay attention to it, of course. But it’s not in my top three data points after price. 

Don’t get me wrong, seasonality brings context and enhances...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What a year for currency markets!

The USD/JPY tested its 1998 highs marked by the Asian Financial Crisis. The British pound revisited its all-time lows. And the euro fell below parity...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What do you do when the party gets out of hand?

You raise the roof!

That’s what the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did yesterday as its former yield curve control policies became untenable....

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The forex and futures markets will provide bountiful ways to trade a weakening dollar.

Unfortunately, some of our initial...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar Index $DXY is running into support at a shelf of former highs. 

How it reacts will influence how stocks fare...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The 2020 V-shaped recovery has warped investors’ brains. 

But this is nothing more than recency bias. In reality, bottoms are a process, not an event. 

Don’t fall victim to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to short the USD. 

Based on the weight of the evidence, our bias for the US dollar has flipped bearish. ...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar experienced significant volatility last week, posting its largest single-day loss since 2015.

As far as we’re concerned,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

For weeks, I’ve been itching to call a top in the US Dollar Index $DXY.

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar has stopped going up!

In fact, it’s already registered a slightly lower high and lower low this past month. 

But we can’t call a top in the US dollar yet. While it...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar is dropping!

It’s finally time to bet on some sustained downside action, and the euro is my vehicle of choice.

I laid out the conditions that would flip my outlook on...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I don’t care what your favorite TikTok financial guru says: Trading isn’t easy.

The market has made this point again and again this year.

The market has also driven home another...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One of the most valuable tactics I’ve learned in my career is the ability to capture a strong trend as it’s trending. 

I’m not talking about FOMO buying or blindly chasing...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar has been under pressure for the past five days, and investors are dancing in the streets.    

I get it. A weaker dollar sits at the top of every stock market bull’s wish...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The calls for a dollar top are growing louder as analysts claim the advance is overextended. 

They’re right. But pushing further into overbought territory is exactly what parabolic...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is on cruise control with nothing ahead but an open road.

The few obstacles that stood in its way...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Sometimes you have to go back to the basics. 

One simple concept has served me well over the years: Don’t fight the primary trend.

There are many other best practices I use...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Did we just experience the largest bear market rally in history? 

Or did the June low mark the bottom for stocks?

Instead of getting caught up in the "bull vs. bear" debate or,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Currency markets have provided stellar trading opportunities this year. 

It isn't always this way.

Last year was rough. False breakouts and whipsaws were the norm, as most forex...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar Index $DXY is trading at fresh highs. Take a look around the currency market. It shows.

Recent attempts to fade dollar strength...