Chinese stocks just had their best week in history, following the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) announcement of rate cuts, among other stimulative actions.
Despite the gloomy headlines the market received this summer, major stock market sectors are showing resilience across the board, with new signs of life emerging.
A shift seems to be on the horizon.
At the moment, we are long bonds. We like bonds, and the charts tell us we are right to like bonds here, but what does the future hold?
If inflation starts ticking up again, the market usually pivots toward the reflation trade—favoring sectors like energy, small caps, and financials as rates rise. (I am not saying that this is happening. I am saying that we need to keep an eye on this.)
Energy has not participated in the bull run this year. When we compare XLE to some of the best stocks this cycle, like XLK, the performance gap is wild.
The chart below shows XLK up roughly 40% over the trailing 12 months while XLE is negative.
Meanwhile, the rally in bonds appears to be slowing down.
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Welcome to TheJunior International Hall of Famers.
With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.
This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.
Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.
This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:
In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
This is a major development in the forex market. And when we look under the hood, things are even worse than they appear for the greenback.
With more and more global currencies showing relative strength each day, it’s time to take a look at US dollar internals and see what’s moving.
Relative strength is not just the cheat code for stocks, it also works for the currency market and everything else in between.
We also learn a lot about the breadth of a given market through analyzing internals. This helps us determine how we want to position ourselves to make money.
And right now, it looks like we should position ourselves for a lower dollar over longer time frames.
The following table shows the US dollar is in, or moving toward, a bearish trend regime against most other major currencies.
The worst stocks on the planet. Yes those. They're even buying those.
That's what happens in bull markets.
The CSI 300 is up over 4% overnight. This is the Chinese equivalent to the S&P500, which is now bouncing off support from Q1 and potentially putting in a historic double bottom:
Think about what this could mean to global markets, if even the worst stocks can't go down.
I mean, just look at the returns in China compared to the United States over the past 4 years, taking it back to before the prior cycle's peak.
Using this timeframe, you can really see the lack of recovery in China.
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
