In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
They’re Buying European Banks
European Financials (EUFN) have been among the best-performing industry groups for the last three months. As you can see, price recently reclaimed a critical level of interest and is pushing against seven-month highs. This is evidence of a bullish uptick in risk appetite.
New highs exceeded new lows last week for the first time since August (and only the third time since November 2021). That is a positive development but there is more work to be done before concluding that a new bull market has been reborn.
More Context: With this week’s improvement, our bull market re-birth checklist now has two out of the five criteria satisfied. It’s heading in the right direction, but 2022 was full of bounces that were not sustained and strength that did not persist. Big moves in both directions was a key part of last year’s experience, which saw the S&P 500 recording the 3rd most 3% up weeks and the 3rd most 3% down weeks in the past 70+ years. Further, we are seeing relative trends point to new leadership (equal-weight over cap-weight in the US; the rest of the world over the US on a global basis), but in most cases, the new leaders remain in longer-term down-trends. If we want to get more constructive on equities as an asset class, that needs to change.
Have you noticed precious metals printing fresh highs?
Last week, gold posted new multi-month highs. So did silver and platinum, hitting their highest levels since the spring of 2022.
Not a bad start to 2023 for these shiny rocks. And it gets better!
Gold broke out to new all-time highs relative to bonds last week. The yellow metal is not only showing strength on an absolute basis – it’s also outperforming its alternatives.
These are classic bull market characteristics and two critical pieces of evidence suggesting gold is in the early stages of a new structural uptrend.
If gold is on its way to new all-time highs, gold mining stocks will be participating.
And it just so happens they are…
If gold prices rise, companies that remove gold from the ground and sell it will surely benefit. Simple!
Check out the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index $XAU, which tracks the 30 largest precious metal mining stocks:
We don’t directly trade XAU. Instead, we look to the index for information. Think of it as a roadmap for gold mining ETFs and stocks.
No doubt Gold Bugs have been enjoying the price action in gold instruments recently. It has been a profitable few months to be long just about anything shiny -- even silver!
Last week, gold posted new multi-month highs. So did silver and platinum, hitting their highest levels since the spring of 2022.
Not a bad start to 2023 for these shiny rocks. And it gets better!
Gold broke out to new all-time highs relative to bonds last week. The yellow metal is not only showing strength on an absolute basis – it’s also outperforming its alternatives.
These are classic bull market characteristics and two critical pieces of evidence suggesting gold is in the early stages of a new structural uptrend.
If gold is on its way to new all-time highs, gold mining stocks will be participating.
And it just so happens they are…
If gold prices rise, companies that remove gold from the ground and sell it will surely benefit. Simple!
Over the last week, we've seen momentum flow down the cap scale in crypto markets. Many altcoins have posted sizeable gains coming from historically skewed levels.
This is happening in the context of a tightening volatility regime, where price stability in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most alts were at some of the highest levels in recent history.
Here's the performance of each of the Sectors since the new lows list on the NYSE peaked in Q2. Notice how Consumer Discretionary is the best performer. How can consumer discretionary stocks doing so well possibly be a bad thing?