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Bond Report: When the Plumbing Breaks, What Swap Spreads Are Telling Us

April 13, 2025

One of the most reliable signals of market stress isn’t in the headlines—it’s in swap spreads.

Swap spreads measure the difference between what banks pay to swap interest rates (SOFR) and what the U.S. government pays to borrow (Treasuries). When that spread collapses, like it just did, something’s breaking.

  • In 2008, swap spreads collapsed before Lehman.
  • In March 2020, they broke again when the Treasury market froze.

Both times, the Fed stepped in.

This week, the 30-year swap spread hit a record low last week. Translation? Dealers are under pressure. Liquidity is vanishing.

 

Chart from Kevin Muir from The Macro Tourist

Here’s the real story:

Pension funds use swaps to hedge rates while keeping cash free for private investments. Banks hedge those swaps by buying Treasuries—but capital requirements limit how...

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(Commodities Weekly) This Juice is Worth The Squeeze 🍊

April 11, 2025

Amid historic market volatility, we're looking for uncorrelated trades.

Whether that's Crude Oil, Lumber, or Orange Juice.

Trading commodities doesn't just offer lucrative risk versus reward opportunities, but it also has a very low correlation to other asset classes.

For example, Orange Juice was in a steady uptrend from 2020 until the end of 2024. 

It didn't care about the bear market in 2022. 

And it certainly doesn't care about the bear market in 2025.

This was the best week for the juice since 1998, and we think it has the potential to rally more for the foreseeable future.

This is why we talk about polarity so much 👇...
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International Hall of Famers (04-11-2025)

April 11, 2025

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 4/11/25

April 11, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to GLD position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 4/10/25

April 10, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XRT position to June.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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No Tweeting on Vacation

April 10, 2025

I'll be back from a nice family vacation later today and will be LIVE on The Morning Show Friday morning.

Miami is fantastic this time of year. I highly recommend a good vacation, if that's something that you can afford to do.

There was a time in my life that I couldn't afford this kind of thing, so it makes me appreciate it so much more. Many of you already understand this. Some of you will one day.

I wanted to check in and share a few things I've been thinking about while I've been away this week.

One thing that certainly stands out is just how great it is to stay off twitter while you're way with your family.

If you want to make sure you're a bad father, one way to solidify that is to spend all your time tweeting during family vacations. 

I kid. But this is definitely a luxury that I couldn't understand in my younger days. 

There is an incredible team at...

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 4/9/25

April 9, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Rolled XLC position to June.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

2 to 100 Club,
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2 to 100 Club (04-09-2025)

April 9, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...