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Follow the Flow (10-09-2023)

October 9, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Is It Time To Buy Gold?

October 9, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One day of buying pressure doesn’t change the situation with precious metals. 

Gold bugs were out in full force Friday, driving gold and silver to impressive gains that would excite even the least devout among them.

But don’t get your hopes up… 

Precious metals stopped falling at a logical level of support.

Good, old-fashioned price memory triggered a standard response – nothing magical.

More importantly, nothing bullish.

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[Options Premium] Marginal Utilities

October 9, 2023

The utilities sector has been schmeissed (technical term) over the past couple of months. Its like all of a sudden investors all woke up en masse to finally decide the rising interest rates environment offers better alternatives for their investing dollars than relatively riskier dividend paying stocks.

This may be true, but is it possible investors may have overreacted a bit?

On a sector level, the Utilities ETF $XLU has potentially put in a tradeable bottom -- at least one we can lean against for risk management purposes. And considering their is upcoming earnings announcement risk in many of the biggest names in this sector, playing the ETF feels like the safest way to play.

 

All Star Charts Gold Rush

Is It Time To Buy Gold?

October 9, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One day of buying pressure doesn’t change the situation with precious metals. 

Gold bugs were out in full force Friday, driving gold and silver to impressive gains that would excite even the least devout among them.

But don’t get your hopes up… 

Precious metals stopped falling at a logical level of support.

Good, old-fashioned price memory triggered a standard response – nothing magical.

More importantly, nothing bullish.

Check out a custom index equally weighting gold, silver, and platinum:

 

The index is clinging to the lower bounds of a multi-year range as it retests its year-to-date lows, creating a logical place for buyers to support price across multiple timeframes.  

Beneath the surface: Platinum hit a fresh 52-week low, while gold and silver fell roughly 1% and 3% last week, respectively.

It’s not upbeat data, failing to entice a long position at these levels. 

Gold futures also hit the brakes at a potential support zone last week:

 

Gold slid into a critical retracement level, registering its lowest 14-day RSI...

Energy Stocks Need More Time

October 9, 2023

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Energy stocks have been the best-performing group thus far during the second half of 2023. However, they have given back some of their gains in recent weeks as selling pressure resurfaces.

With energy indexes rolling over at their old highs yet again, the question we’re asking (and have been asking) is simple… 

What is it going to take for these stocks to finally break out?

Here is a dual-pane chart showing the Equal-Weight Energy Sector testing the upper bounds of a multi-month basing pattern on both absolute and relative terms.

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Natty Gas Busts Loose!

October 6, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Each commodity market has unique supply and demand dynamics.

The result is a diverse set of assets offering a steady flow of trading opportunities.

Today, I’ll outline two promising trade setups – one long, one short.

Let’s start with a fan favorite…

Natty Gas!

Natural gas futures gained over 6% on Thursday, taking out a key pivot high.

Here’s the continuation chart posting its highest level since March:

Notice natty gas is finding support above a former resistance zone at roughly 2.835. 

On Wednesday’s "What the FICC?" I mentioned trading against Tuesday’s low based on this near-term support.

Price has ripped higher since, taking out a shelf of pivot highs and filling a downside gap from early September.

I’m now long the November contract with an initial...