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The Biggest Surprise

April 20, 2023

The weakness in the US Dollar over the past couple of quarters comes as no surprise to us.

The journalists nailed it again.

What else is new?

But here's what really has surprised me.

If you would have told me in September that the Dollar would fall apart over the next 2 quarters, I would have told you that precious metals are likely doing well in that environment. I would have also said that Silver would outperform Gold during that period.

In this case I would have been absolutely right.

Great.

But what I would have also been confident about is foreign equities doing well in that weaker Dollar environment.

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The Short Report (04-19-2023)

April 19, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

[Options] Patiently Positioning for a Summer Breakout in $MRVL

April 19, 2023

For a swing trader like me, earnings season is always tough. I often find myself in a situation where my favorite setups have a looming earnings release on the nearby horizon, introducing binary risks that make me uncomfortable.

And this season is no different. All of my favorite setups right now are fraught with earnings risk.

But I've found one opportunity where a pending earnings release may actually benefit us, allowing us to get positioned at attractive prices for a post-earnings run.

Expiration Day Fireworks

April 19, 2023

Friday is April monthly options expiration day.

It used to be a big day. Back in the day (cue old person lecturing) we used to only have monthly options expirations. And because of this, the third Friday of every month tended to offer up some fireworks on the regular.

These days, daily expiring index options and weekly expiring stock options have kinda taken the starch out of the monthly happening. Boo.

Call me old fashioned (just don’t call me old!), but I still prefer to do my directional options trades – and most of my delta-neutral option spreads – in regular ol’ monthly expirations. And there seem to be plenty of traders out there like me because we still see the majority of the open interest in the monthlies.

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Where the new highs at?

April 19, 2023

In bull markets you regularly see more and more stocks making new highs.

That's just a normal characteristic of this type of market environment.

Yesterday we saw a ton of stocks making new 52-week highs - names like Nvidia, AstraZeneca, Salesforce, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, Chipotle, Autozone, Motorola, Lennar and many others.

However, in aggregate we have yet to see that key breakout in breadth expansion in the new 52-week highs list.

The new lows list is non existent. It's been that way since the 4th quarter last year.

But where the new highs at?