From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a rough one for the market today.

Tomorrow's release of CPI data for October (8:30 a.m. ET) is dragging on things.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The number of issues that traded on the NASDAQ in any given week just prior to COVID was somewhere around 3500. Last week 5500 issues traded on the NASDAQ.   

Why It Matters: The number of issues trading on the NASDAQ topped out at over 6000 in 1997. By the time the NASDAQ 100 peaked in 2000, this number was already approaching 5000. As that bubble burst, the number of issues traded on the NASDAQ collapsed (dropping to 3500 by the end of 2003). Listings declined further during the Financial Crisis. The Technology sector has led the way lower in the current bear market and many former higher flyers are trading at pennies on the dollar. But listings on the NASDAQ have actually expanded since the index peaked nearly a year ago. It’s hard to think about the market healing when defunct companies haven’t yet been shown the door.  

In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a closer look at how options traders are feeling and what it might take from a sentiment perspective for the stocks...

“Why do you rob banks?” authorities asked notorious bank thief Willie Sutton.

His response: “Because that’s where the money is.”

We're not planning on robbing anybody, but if today's trade plays out like we think it can, it might feel like we're stealing. Only, we won't need to worry about the authorities coming after us, nor will we need to feel bad about it.

Our Analyst Willie Delwiche says that a basic requirement for many bullish ideas right now is that any stock or ETF in question needs to be above August highs. Anything below August highs is subject to a rude reversal. I'm on board with this line of thinking.

So, today's trade is in an American bank that is above its August high and showing signs of wanting more.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

This week we're looking at a stock from the Leisure sector.

Wow.

What can I say?

This is the most chaotic turn of events I've experienced being involved with crypto. For those who somehow missed what's happening, here are the brief details...

One of the largest crypto exchanges on the planet, FTX, has experienced a significant liquidity crunch. As a result, Binance has entered into a non-binding agreement to acquire FTX, helping to cover the liquidity crunch.

Any and all funds held on FTX are now gone.

It's the biggest blow-up in the industry's history.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Alphabet Inc.

The tech giant reported a $17 million purchase in GitLab $GTLB.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The futures were not that volatile overnight.

Election night is over, but I we are still waiting for some results.

We called it the trade of a generation.

And it's worked great for us.

Now we have a similar setup and I think it can work out just as well.

Am I being creative with my trading?

Am I tinkering with new ideas, new money management algorithms, new mindsets, new products, new timeframes, or new workflows?

We don’t need to be trying all new things all the time. But spending time thinking about divergent ideas is a valuable practice.

When we exercise our creative muscles, we might find nothing other than a journey down an empty rabbit hole. But sometimes, we have epiphany moments that change the way we operate. These can be minor, value-added ways – or maybe even drastic, wholesale change kinds of ways.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has always always been higher one year after midterm elections than it was on election day. But over the shorter-term, the market has had a more mixed reaction to the votes being cast and counted.     

Why It Matters: Investors are looking for a catalyst that could help 2022 finish on a more positive note and allow 2023 to begin with some positive momentum. There is no denying the historical pattern for stocks to rally in the wake of midterm elections. No doubt there will be pockets of strength in this cycle as well. Some of the dominant themes that have been present already in 2022 (e.g. more volatility than strength and a deteriorating liquidity backdrop) argues for seeing evidence of strength before embracing the pattern.     

We take a Deeper Look at market challenges that aren’t going away just because the voting is done and where investors could look for signs that conditions are improving.