In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Adjustment to IGV position.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Cryptocurrencies and crypto stocks are reacting negatively to some of the most positive news they’ve had in years.

It all just speaks to the recent mood shift for Bitcoin and friends. Since the election rally, it hasn’t gone well.

And just think of the news cycle. The first crypto president. A strategic BTC reserve. A non-predatory SEC. Crypto fund approvals. 

The headlines couldn’t be more bullish.

Yet, the average altcoin has suffered a 60% drawdown, and there are literally no cryptos holding up outside of Bitcoin.

I think the next leg for Bitcoin will be lower, as it gets in line with the rest of its asset class. 

In this post, I’ll explain why and what I’m doing about it.

When I think of Bitcoin, I also think of Solana, Ethereum, Coinbase, and Microstrategy… the whole group should work together. It always has. When...

We've been discussing the odds favoring shiny rocks outperforming stocks for the foreseeable future. 

It's what happens in every precious metals bull market.

Another classic in these cycles is for the mining stocks to outperform gold. We think this is about to happen. 

In addition, we expect the entire precious metals complex to move explosively. We haven't seen this yet, but we're anticipating it.

The setup in palladium futures looks as juicy as anything in the market.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XME position to April options.
3. Closed SMH at profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Look, I get it—this topic comes up again and again, and it can be a bit of a head scratcher.

I keep saying it: inflation is sticky, and the dollar is rolling over.

Yet people ask, "How does that work with a 75% rolling correlation between the dollar and yields recently?"

And that’s a valid question.

Check out this chart—it’s a visual reminder that correlations aren’t set in stone. There are times when the numbers move in harmony and other moments when the link just falls apart.
 

Markets evolve, and so do these relationships.

Here’s the honest truth: correlations are fickle by nature. They can look tight one minute and then unravel the next.

Relying on a strong historical link is like betting on a coin toss coming up heads every time—it’s risky and can easily lead you astray.

Here's our latest Freshly Squeezed table: 

As you can see, Gorilla Technology $GRRR, Super Micro Computer $SMCI, and Innodata $INOD are at the top of the scan. They've been ripping!

Now, let's talk about today's setup.

The Financial sector has been home to some of the best uptrends in recent years. 📈

Names like Interactive Brokers (a fan favorite around here) have rallied over 500% since the 2020 trough.

It has been a historic bull run. 

One of the stocks that haven't participated in this cycle is the $2.6B company from Chicago, GCM Grosvenor $GCMG.

It was established in 1971 but went public for the first time via SPAC in late 2020.

The company manages nearly $80B in assets across various alternative investment strategies, including private equity, credit, real estate, and more.

In bull markets, this company prints money. 

As you can see, GCM Grosvenor has resolved a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern versus the broader market. 

This means the stock should outperform its peers for...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

We've been obnoxiously bullish on soft commodities recently. 

And it's for a good reason. 

Coffee just broke out of a nearly 50-year basing pattern. It's hard to bearish when the price is making new all-time highs.

But the group is becoming bifurcated.

Orange juice futures were the early leader in the soft space. The price made a new all-time high in 2022.

Unfortunately (for the bulls), the uptrend in OJ seems to be over, at least for now.

As you can see, orange juice futures resolved a nearly 50-year basing pattern in 2022. This pattern is almost identical to coffee futures. ...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in ARKK.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!