From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It's a very sloppy and choppy market, and it's hard to trade.

$SPY closed its opening gap up.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider transaction on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filed by Kelcy Warren, chairman and CEO of Energy Transfer Partners $ET.

Warren reported a purchase of roughly $38.8 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

On Monday morning I said $SPY could have potential to 441, and on Tuesday morning we're there.

That was a nice reversal yesterday off the 435 level, and now the question is will we push to 444.

Look at this mess.

The S&P500 is stuck below overhead supply, as we've discussed plenty around here.

And it's happening at a time that the S&P500 is supposed to be a mess. So this is perfectly normal.

Nevertheless, this is the predicament that S&Ps currently find themselves in...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended August 18, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I believe we're in wait-and-see mode until Friday!

It's a "What Will Jerome Say?" market.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is hanging on for dear life.

Rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar create formidable headwinds for the shiny yellow rock.

I remain optimistic for the entire precious metals space, but hope is not a viable trading strategy – especially if gold undercuts its 2011 highs.

Some gold bugs may find it difficult to accept, but gold’s a short if and when it decisively closes below its prior commodity supercycle peak.

And it’s trading back at those former highs today…

This trade doesn't need a long-winded send-up. Because it's the same story as the trade we put on in $FCX on Friday.

So let's get right to it.

Here's the trade:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is hanging on for dear life.

Rising interest rates and a strengthening dollar create formidable headwinds for the shiny yellow rock.

I remain optimistic for the entire precious metals space, but hope is not a viable trading strategy – especially if gold undercuts its 2011 highs.

Some gold bugs may find it difficult to accept, but gold’s a short if and when it decisively closes below its prior commodity supercycle peak.

And it’s trading back at those former highs today…

Let’s review the levels.

Check out the monthly candlestick chart of gold futures:

I understand the August candle is incomplete. It doesn’t bother me. 

I’m not analyzing the current month’s candlestick. Instead, the prior-cycle peak from 2011 holds my focus. 

The monthly chart simply provides the most precise depiction of that crucial level.

Notice gold has managed to hang tough – five months and counting –  since it reclaimed those critical former highs last March.

It retested those highs in May, June, and August, three of the last four months.

Bullish bias aside...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today: