From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Energy and Crude Diverge

Crude oil (CL_F) and energy stocks have been trending in different directions since this summer, but the gap between the two has become more pronounced during the trailing month. We’ve included the 100-day rolling correlation, illustrating how rare such a prolonged dislocation is. With the Energy sector XLE failing to hold above its June highs this week, this divergence becomes a more-concerning datapoint for energy bulls.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was negative, with 79% of our list closed lower with a median return of -0.54%.
• The Volatility Index $VIX was the winner, closing with a 2.66% gain.
• The biggest loser was Oil $CL, with a weekly loss of -9.98%.
• There was no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 2%.
• 15% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
• Meanwhile...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a very choppy day. And it could potentially be like this all week.

We have multiple Fed speakers this week, with FOMC minutes on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Just when 2022 was getting known for noise, the markets quieted down last week. For the first time in five weeks, the S&P 500 did not move 3% in one direction or the other. For the first time this year, no trading day last week saw the S&P 500 move 1% or more in either direction. We begin a new week with the S&P 500 not having moved 1% or more in either direction in six straight days. It has been a year since it has had a longer streak of small swings.

More Context: In the past half century, the only years with more 1% daily moves than 2022 were 2008 and 2002. Before this recent run of quiet, the S&P 500 had moved by 1% on more than half of the trading days. Historically there is an inverse relationship between volatility and strength. In the past half century, no year had fewer 1% moves than did 2017 (which had fewer for the entire year than 2022 is averaging per month). When daily volatility subsides, prices typically rise. That was the case in 2016-17, mid-2018, late-2019, and (to a lesser...

While bargain clothes shoppers seem to be driving profits in a way Wall Street likes, it takes a certain kind of trader to buy stock in the company when it's making new All-Time Highs.

Well, I just happen to be that type of trader! In fact, one of my favorite setups is to buy stocks making fresh all-time highs. There is no overhead supply of bagholders looking to dump the stock to get back to even. Nothing but blue skies ahead.

And when options premium has collapsed, we can buy long calls to put ourselves in a position to enjoy the possibility of unlimited gains.

Let's go shopping!

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We had a resting GTC order filled in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Tomorrow, I'm off for a roadie to Wellington to catch up with some buddies and to go to a lecture. It all should be a great time.

Last week, I spent some time at my Mum's lifestyle block, house-sitting and looking after their animals.

It's moments like these where you can unwind and clear your head. This is especially important when you're involved in these markets.

Random internet tokens?

Rug-pulls?

Mass liquidations?

It all seems false when you step outside and unwind.

In this market, I've spent less time looking at charts and more time thinking and contemplating. Don't force your hand in environments like these.

If you try to find setups instead of seeing them, you'll enter into trades you'll inevitably regret.

The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Mark and Edward Shoen’s Willow Grove Holdings LP.

The holding company revealed a purchase worth $32.4 million in AMERCO $UHAL. The Shoen family remains the largest holders of UHAL stock.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

A little pull-in for the futures this morning, though we're still hovering around $SPX 3,950.

Currently, we're forming a bull flag on the indices, but I'd like to see SPX 3,934 held. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.