From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The commodity markets never lack action. 

Since it’s such a diverse asset class, we’ll always have contracts we want to buy, some that we want to short, and others we want to avoid.

Today, I’m going to outline one of each. Let’s dive in!

The Breakout

According to the latest reports, Hurricane Ian (strong name, terrible storm) may have cut the Florida orange crop in half.

Whether it’s true doesn’t matter. I’m more concerned with a well-defined level to trade against. Check out the daily chart of orange juice futures:

The chart looks good to me! A five-month base breakout to fresh five-year highs is the kind of strength I like to buy.

The line in the sand is 191. You can get long above this level with an initial target of 220 and a secondary objective of 242.50.

Remember, OJ futures are thinly traded. You need to adjust your...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It's like Thursday never happened.

I was looking for a consolidation, with a possibility of $SPY 364 to hold roughly.

That was not the case.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Labor Pressure Eases - Is Inflation Next?

The Chart: 

On the labor front, job openings turned lower in August and the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker for September seems to have followed suit. On the inflation front, the year change in the median CPI reached another new high (its 7th in a row) in September.

Why It Matters: 

Despite a bevy of other explanations, surging inflation has had more to do with imbalances in the labor market than anything else. A drop in job openings (while not a sign of strength) is a more preferable way to restore labor market balance than increased layoffs and unemployment. With wage growth now slowing, the hope is that inflation could soon peak. The challenge is that once the inflation genie is loose it can be hard to get under control - even if the initial causes are mitigated. In that regard, this month’s jump in inflation expectations reported with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is unwelcome news for the Fed...

While this certainly is not the market environment to be taking aggressive long bets in, there are some stocks that are displaying tremendous relative strength that we can play with strictly defined-risk positions to protect ourselves.

Our Young Aristocrats Report shows us stocks that aren’t just paying dividends but are doing so while they’re going up and thus paying us via price appreciation as well.

And this week's report serves up a great opportunity.

There are a lot of trends in markets that are worth paying attention to.

Remember, asset prices trend. They're not random.

We have the data.

So one major trend we want to make sure we're not ignoring is in Energy stocks relative to Technology.

Look at the ratio between them making new multi-year highs, yet the S&P500 weighting in energy is still less than 5% of the entire index. But Technology is still almost 25% of the index.

Is that weighting sustainable?

This is the video recording of our October 14, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Happy Friday.

That was a nice reversal yesterday in the indices. I wouldn't mind a little consolidation today.

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list was reported in a series of Form 4 filings by Hill Path Capital Partners LP.

The investment company reported a total of roughly $10 million in purchases of Dave & Busters $PLAY.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t catch falling knives!

It sounds simple enough. But in reality, traders continue to lose fingers as they reach for downtrending assets.

Diving after downtrends isn’t one of my many afflictions. But I do have a theory…

Traders and investors don’t realize they're catching a falling knife in the moment. They believe they’re bargain-hunting.

So if you’re one of the many investors out there mending fresh wounds this week, I want to make one thing clear…

Bonds are a falling knife.

Check out the chart of the 30-year T-bond:

Do you really want to buy this chart?

Sure, the downtrend is stretched and ripe for some mean reversion. But as long as it’s below 127’23 we’re short with a target of 116. 

It’s the same story with $TLT:

I can’t buy a chart that’s breaking down to fresh 8-year lows. It doesn’t make sense to me...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a day.

We went from SPX lows at 3,491 to a close at 3,669. It was nice to be up over 2% versus being down 2% for a change.

This is the video recording of the October 13th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

10/13/22 2:00 PM ET