When you hear people talking about Dow Theory, it usually revolves around what the Dow Industrials and Transports are doing and whether they are diverging or confirming one another. I want to be perfectly clear that while this is certainly one of...
Tuesday was only one day but it felt like it may have offered us a clue. The major indices — S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow, Russell 2000 — all experienced notable pullbacks. Perhaps the first notable pullbacks we’ve seen in at least two weeks....
There are many ways to gauge the strength or weakness of the U.S. Stock Market. For us, there isn't a single "best way" to do it. The advantage we have is that we just analyze all of them. There are over 50 charts in my...
We’ve had quite a bounce in US equities since the beginning of the year. And the longer this bounce holds, the more appealing the long side gets. However, it still doesn’t alleviate the very real risk that we might be in what could best be described...
Picking tops and bottoms in the market is really hard. Some people claim they can do it and we'll let them. It's those types of people who help create the arbitrage between the aware and the unaware.
Tuesday I posted a mystery chart and asked you all to let me know what you would do. Buy, sell, or do nothing. Many said that it looked like a downtrend and that a neutral/...
While I'm still not convinced we've seen "the" low in the recent correction/bear market, the recent daily price action of the indices sure is doing its best to chisel away at my resolve. And it at least has me considering adding some long exposure to...
When it comes to stock market bellwethers, I can think of very few that are as important as J.P. Morgan Chase. If you look at a chart of the S&P500 going back decades and a chart of the JP Morgan, they look exactly the same. This brings me to our...
One of my favorite exercises in our process is the use of "mystery charts." Essentially, we take out the x and y-axes and and all labels to eliminate any biases. The chart can be any security...
One of my favorite exercises in our process is the use of "mystery charts." Essentially, we take out the x and y-axes and and all labels to eliminate any biases. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or...
As part of my weekly review I went through the entire S&P 1500 across on both the weekly and daily timeframes to identify long and short opportunities, as well as any major market themes...
In addition to broader indices, there are certain bellwether stocks we monitor continually to offer better clues as to the strength or weakness of the market. One such stock we monitor has not followed along with the prevailing winds in the market...
The bounce in US stocks continues off the Christmas Eve low, but it is showing signs of short-term exhaustion. Does this mean we go right back to lows? Not necessarily. I'm in the camp that some sideways chop would be constructive for the markets...