We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Well, well, we're zooming out and looking at the big picture again.

This is that time again where we try to see through the fog of short-term moves and identify the long-term structure of the market. Every month, this process helps have a clear vision going into the new month. So let's dive in and look at some of these charts!

As the sleepy summer season carries on, so do the short Hot Lists.

Director Timothy J. Wilmott revealed an acquisition worth $1.2 million in Darden Restaurants $DRI.

Mario Gabelli’s GAMCO Investors filed a 13D revealing an ownership stake of 22.3% in Telesat Corporation $TSAT.

China is an emerging market right? But is it?

While it's the biggest component of the Emerging Markets Index $EEM, is it something larger, maybe more developed?

It doesn't really have a category.

It's like Notre Dame Football.

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

No one likes a bear market, except for the bears of course.

They haze the uninitiated, test market veterans, and remind everyone that assets can go to zero.

Not fun for most!

When we take a step back and assess all the data in front of us today, the outlook remains dismal for the overall market.

The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq have posted more new lows than new highs for 31 weeks and counting. Leadership groups carry a defensive tone. Topping patterns continue to resolve lower. Support levels are being ignored and violated. Long story short, it's ugly out here.

And it's not only stocks... Bitcoin just booked its worst month and quarter in over a decade and bonds are having one of their worst years in history.

No wonder investor sentiment is in the dumps. It’s clear we are in the midst of a bear market. 

They’ve replaced the comical “stocks only go up” memes with images of the grim reaper coming for our favorite names. Even memes aren’t as funny in a bear market!

Given...

Look guys, we try to be real with you.

We don't like to sugarcoat what's happening. We don't make up stories. We don't follow journalists and narratives.

What we do is follow the money flow.

This is the video recording of the June 30th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

06/30/22 2:00 PM ET

For this week's trade, we're selling an $XLE August 65/85 Short Strangle for an approximately $2.75 credit. This means we’ll be naked short equal amounts of the 65 puts and 85 calls.

Get the full details, risk management procedures and targets for this trade here:

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Earlier this week, I laid out some similarities between now and 2008. From a price, liquidity, breadth and sentiment perspective, the echoes are there. 

The comparisons keep popping up. 

A couple of days ago, there was a chart showing that the ongoing decline in equity market value (relative to GDP) exceeds any other drawdown in the past 40 years with the exception of what was experienced during the Financial Crisis. 

Today, it’s data from Gallup showing economic confidence is at levels only seen in 2008-2009. 

I’m not saying that the market and the economy need to follow the course laid out in the wake of the Q4 2007 highs. But the more similarities we see, the more worthy it is of consideration. Put another way, until bulls provide proof that we are not following that path, it would be foolish (and perhaps expensive) to ignore it as a possibility. Don’t...

The next new trade in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

It’s another brief Hot List today.

Neil Gagnon, the CEO of Gagnon Advisors LLC, revealed a purchase of approximately 43,200 shares in the small-cap software company SecureWorks Corp $SCWX.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as the Hall of Famers, the Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We'll...