There's no denying the fact that crypto and macro have become intertwined in recent times.
We'd even go far as to say that Bitcoin is a macro asset. I think over time, as its market capitalization grows, the correlation to traditional assets will remain concentrated, as Bitcoin will eventually go on to exhibit gold-like returns.
Some will ask what it'll take for Bitcoin to decouple from equities. This is often a great and insightful discussion. But, like most elements relating to financial markets, we need to see them for how they really are, not how we want to see them.
When it comes to the macro landscape, it's clearly been difficult to ignore what's taking place in yields. The carnage in the bond market is, by historical measures, extreme.
The first lesson you learn in any university finance program is that higher yields negatively impact long-duration assets -- you're seeing this take place right here and now.
The Nasdaq is trading tick-for-tick with US Treasuries over recent weeks:
Monday was an unexpected break. Markets were closed for Juneteenth Day, which is now a Federal holiday. I didn't realize that would be the case until the middle of last week. It has made for a short week in the market after a long weekend for doing whatever it is you do to get refreshed after staring at computer screens all day. For me, it meant more time in the garden.
The garden has provided its own share of unexpected developments recently, and I’m not just talking about volunteer cantaloupes (though there are several of them around).
In the pond, a spike in ammonia levels necessitated an overdue and unexpectedly extensive cleaning. Not only is it now a healthier environment in which the fish can thrive, but in the process we discovered a baby fish that we hadn't known about.
Monday night we held our June Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during...
It's not just retail. Some of the most sophisticated crypto funds on the planet are blowing up. Lives are getting destroyed.
But here's a quick reminder: The best trades come when others are forced to exit and are at their lowest points.
Is it a nice way to make a living?
No. But you have to deal with it. Otherwise, you end up being on the wrong side.
The ETF providers in their infinite wisdom seem to be feeding on this sentiment, with the first short Bitcoin ETF being launched in the US this week. This feels awfully reminiscent of October, when the first Bitcoin futures ETF was launched.
Key Takeaway: More and more distribution patterns are resolving lower as bearish price action runs rampant across all major assets classes. Even the leadership groups such as commodities experience selling pressure as pessimism grows. Yet, while investors have expressed concern, they have not done much about it. Equity funds continue to attract inflows ($200+ billion YTD, according to DB) and households are hardly flush with liquidity. Perhaps it will take a second quarter in a row of being told not to look at their retirement account statements to prompt some investor action.
Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Copper Looks Tarnished
Some call it Dr. Copper - the commodity with a PhD in economics. For me, it’s more like Mr. Copper, CMT - Emerging Market technical analyst. Either way, market participants express how they are feeling through the price of copper. Copper was an early leader off of the COVID lows but has moved sideways since early 2021. Now, our trend...