That’s how many times the S&P 500 has closed at an all-time high in 2025, with the 4th one coming on Friday.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line is the S&P 500 index daily price.
The gray vertical lines mark every day the index closed at an all-time high.
The Takeaway: All-time highs tend to freak people out.
The instinct is to take profits, wait for a pullback, or assume a top is near.
But history says that’s usually the wrong move.
After hitting a fresh high, the market continues to rise more often than not. One month after an ATH, the S&P is higher about 60% of the time. That jumps to 68% at three months, 73% at six, and 72% after a full year. The median 12-month return is a solid +8.8%.
In other words, a new high isn’t a warning sign.
It’s often a green light.
Markets don’t top just because they’ve “gone too far.”
Most major bull runs are powered by strings of fresh highs, not stopped by them.
The S&P 500 has made 1,216 all-time highs since 1957. They tend to cluster during secular bull markets, like the 1980s, 1990s, 2010s.
So far this decade, even though we are only halfway through, they’re already showing a strong count of new highs. This is impressive given the Covid crash and the 2022 bear market.
Participation is broadening, leadership is clear, and global risk appetite is increasing. This 4th high of 2025 likely won’t be the last.
If history is any guide, all-time highs are more likely to lead to further gains, not reversals.
Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts
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