Today's number is... 437 

We’ve already seen 437 days where the S&P 500 moved ±1% in the 2020s — and the decade’s only halfway done.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue bars is the S&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
• The gray bar is the average S&P 500 ±1% days by decade.
• The red bar is the S&P 500 ±1% days in the 2020s.

The Takeaway:

To put that in perspective, the average full decade — from the 1950s through to the 2010s — logged around 504 of these big-swing days. We’re already at 437, and there’s still nearly five years to go.

At this pace, the 2020s are set to become the most volatile decade in modern market history.

Not because of one-off shocks or extreme crashes — but because of the sheer frequency of large daily moves.

Historically, that kind of volatility hasn’t ended well.

More swings usually mean more stress.

But the 2020s? So far, they’re bucking that trend.

Despite all the whiplash,...

Today's number is... 11

All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are now trading above their 50-day moving averages — something we haven’t seen since October 14th, 2024.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel is the S&P 500 index price.
• The black line in the bottom panel shows the number of S&P 500 sectors above their 50-day moving average.

The Takeaway: From defensives like Utilities and Staples, to high-flying Tech and Communication Services, every corner of the market is participating.

This kind of broad strength doesn’t come around often.

When all 11 sectors are trending above their 50-day moving averages, it signals a healthy, unified advance.

Not just a rally carried by a few mega-caps doing the heavy lifting. 

That kind of strength raises the obvious question: what typically happens next?

Over the past few decades, this “11 out of 11” signal has usually led to positive forward returns — though...

Today's number is... 83

We’ve now seen 83 consecutive trading days where the 3-month rolling fund flow for the Russell 2000 (IWM) has been negative — a stretch small caps haven’t experienced since mid-2019.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The green and red candlesticks in the top panel show the price of the Russell 2000.
• The green and red line in the bottom panel shows the rolling 3-month net fund flows for the Russell 2000.

The Takeaway: Nobody wants small caps right now.

And that’s exactly why I’m watching them.

Negative flows for this long isn’t just rare — it’s a clear sign of bearish sentiment.

Historically, when flows dry up like this, it reflects a market that’s been abandoned… and often sets the stage for a reversal.

But it’s not just fund flows.

Short interest in small caps is near 18-month highs.

Traders are leaning heavily against the space — and that kind of crowding rarely ends quietly.

It has also been 899 days since IWM last reached an all-time high.

Today's number is... 1.81%

1.81% is the average year-to-date return of an S&P 500 stock in 2025.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The gray bar illustrates the average stock in the S&P 500's year-to-date return.
• The green and red bars represent the average year-to-date stock returns by sector for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: The S&P 500 hasn't exactly advanced much in 2025.

It’s up just 2.11% year-to-date.

And the average stock is doing even less, sitting at 1.81%.

This isn’t the kind of backdrop where you can throw darts and expect to win.

It’s been a high-volatility, choppy, and highly selective environment.

Average stock returns across sectors paint a messy picture. 

The average stock in Energy and Consumer Discretionary is down nearly 3%.

Even the traditionally strong Technology sector has seen average returns of just 4.5%.

Communication Services and Utilities lead the way...

Today's number is... 100

100 high-quality stocks quietly pushing the S&P 500 Quality Index (SPHQ) to fresh all-time highs.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The black line shows the price of the S&P 500 Quality Index (SPHQ).

The Takeaway: When high-quality stocks take the lead, it means the rally has real substance. 

This isn’t about hype or speculative moonshots. 

SPHQ tracks 100 S&P 500 names with strong profits, low debt, and clean balance sheets — and they’re breaking out.

Names like Visa, Mastercard, Intuit, ADP, and Paychex are all hitting all-time highs. 

These aren’t flashy trades — they’re consistent leaders. 

That kind of strength signals depth, not dazzle.

It also marks a shift in psychology. 

Early risk-on phases start with junky momentum. Then comes value and cyclicals. But when quality takes over, it’s often the most durable stage. Investors are bullish — just smarter about where they’re putting capital.

This isn’t a FOMO rally. It’s...

Today's number is... 10

The ACWI vs US Industry Group Trend Spread just hit a 10-year high in favor of global markets.

Here’s the chart:

The Takeaway: Global markets haven't looked this strong relative to the US in a long time.

Actually, this is the highest level we have seen in 10 years.

Here’s how I measure trend strength using my custom trend scoring system.

I score every ticker on a scale of 0 to 4:

• The 10-week moving average is rising
• The 40-week moving average is rising
• The 10-week MA is above the 40-week MA
• Price is above the 10-week MA

Each check gets a point. 

Four out of four = strong uptrend.

I apply this to 42 countries from the ACWI and 72 US industry groups — 24 each from the S&P 500, 400, and 600.

Once I’ve scored everything, I take the average trend score for both groups and calculate the spread. Then I smooth it with a 10-week moving average.

So why does this matter?

The spread just hit a 10-year high. 

It's not a fluke. 

...

Today's number is... 10

The NYSE FANG+ Index, made up of 10 large-cap growth stocks, just closed at new all-time highs.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line shows the price of the NYSE FANG+ Index.
• The red line is the 200-day moving average of the index.
• The blue line is the 50-day moving average of the index.

The Takeaway: The NYSE FANG+ Index tracks some of the biggest and most important tech names in the market. 

Think Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and NVIDIA. 

These are the companies that tend to lead when the market is strong.

Since bottoming in November 2022 during the cost-of-living crisis, this index has been marching higher in a polite, stair-stepping fashion.

Breakout, pause, repeat.

Now they’ve broken out again — this time to record highs.

That’s not all.

The 50-day moving average just crossed above the 200-day moving average. That’s a golden cross. It’s a bullish signal. It tells us the trend is...

Today's number is... 120

It took 120 trading days for the Dow Jones US Software Index to claw its way back and close at a fresh all-time high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

The black line shows the price of the Dow Jones US Software Index.

The Takeaway: The Dow Jones U.S. Software Index just closed at a fresh all-time high.

Software stocks have been stuck for months. For nearly half a year, the index chopped sideways after falling more than 23% from its December 2024 peak.

After 120 trading days of going nowhere, the index has returned to where it left off, and now it looks ready for the next move higher.

When software stocks lead, it tells us investors are taking on more risk. They’re putting money to work in growth and innovation again. 

This doesn’t happen in weak markets.

And this isn’t being driven by small speculative names.

Microsoft, the second-largest stock in the S&P 500 with a $3.4 trillion market cap, is less than 1% away from all-time highs.

Intuit, worth $213...

Today's number is... 41

The relative ratio of the Momentum Index versus the S&P 500 Index has reached a fresh 41-month new high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the relative ratio of the Momentum Index versus the S&P 500 Index.
• The red line is the 200-day moving average of the relative ratio.
• The blue line is the 50-day moving average of the relative ratio.
• The green and red line in the bottom panel represents the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the relative ratio. When the line is green, it indicates that the daily RSI is in a bullish regime, while a red line signifies that the daily RSI is in a bearish regime.

The Takeaway: This ratio just broke out to its highest level since December 2021. That tells me something simple… Investors are getting more aggressive. 

They’re buying strength. They want exposure to risk...

Today's number is... 1

We saw stage one of the breadth cycle... I’m now on the lookout for stage two.

Here’s the chart:

The Takeaway: First, I want to give a huge shoutout to Mike Hurley, who taught me this way to look at the stock market!

We recently saw stage one of the breadth cycle.

In my framework, that means Spring is here.

On May 12th, over 55% of S&P 500 stocks made 20-day highs. That’s a breadth thrust — the kind of signal we only see at major turning points. It marks the beginning of a new leg higher, not just for a handful of stocks, but across the board.

But first, a quick recap on how we define the breadth cycle.

I break the market into four seasons:

• Spring: The reset. It starts with a breadth thrust — shown as a green line in our chart.
• Summer: The uptrend and momentum strengthen. Breadth and leadership move together.
• Fall: A warning sign. An unusual spike in the 52-week lows marks the “first fall day” — the red line.
• Winter...

Today's number is... 0

My Core Market Model has risen back above the zero line.

Here’s the chart:

The Takeaway: My Core Market Model brings together three key areas: breadth, liquidity, and sentiment.

Breadth looks at how many stocks are participating. I check things like 20-day highs and how many stocks are above their 50-day moving average.

Liquidity shows where money is moving. Are investors choosing stocks over bonds? Are high-yield bonds acting better than Treasuries? What’s the momentum in yields?

Sentiment measures positioning and fear. I watch NAAIM exposure, Investors Intelligence, and the VIX.

I don’t act on one piece of data. I combine them all, then smooth the result with a 5-day moving average. 

It’s not a buy or sell tool. It’s a way to read the environment.

When the model is above zero, I treat it as a bullish backdrop… Below zero, it’s bearish.

Right now, the model is back above zero.

That’s an important market shift. It had been...

Today's number is... 3

Let's check in on how the third year of this bull market is progressing.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The light blue line represents the performance of an average first year during a bull market for the S&P 500. The dark blue line illustrates the performance of the first year of the current bull market for the S&P 500.
• The light gray line indicates the performance of an average second year within a bull market for the S&P 500, while the dark gray line shows the performance of the second year of the current bull market.
• The light red line depicts the performance of an average third year during a bull market for the S&P 500, and the dark red line represents the performance of the third year of the current bull market for the S&P 500.

The Takeaway: By my definition, a bull market starts with a 20% rally after a 20% drop. Based on that, we’re still in a bull market that began in late 2022.