That’s how many times the S&P 500 has closed at an all-time high in 2025, with the 4th one coming on Friday.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line is the S&P 500 index daily price.
The gray vertical lines mark every day the index closed at an all-time high.
The Takeaway: All-time highs tend to freak people out.
The instinct is to take profits, wait for a pullback, or assume a top is near.
But history says that’s usually the wrong move.
After hitting a fresh high, the market continues to rise more often than not. One month after an ATH, the S&P is higher about 60% of the time. That jumps to 68% at three months, 73% at six, and 72% after a full year. The median 12-month return is a solid +8.8%.
In other words, a new high isn’t a warning sign.
It’s often a green light.
Markets don’t top just because they’ve “gone too far.”
Most major bull runs are powered by strings of fresh highs, not stopped by them....
These are the 6 risk indicators I track for confirmation or divergence of the move in the S&P 500 — and right now, four are confirming the rally while two remain neutral, as the index hovers just 0.05% below its record high.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The top row tracks equity leadership: High Beta vs. Low Volatility, Cyclicals vs. Defensives, and Discretionary vs. Staples.
The bottom row captures macro and internal confirmation: the Inverted US Dollar, the Advance-Decline Line, and High-Yield vs. Treasury Bonds.
The Takeaway: These 6 charts track the tug-of-war between offense and defense. Together, they show where money is flowing — and whether this rally is built on broad support or narrow leadership.
4 out of 6 signals are in clear confirmation mode, lending strong support to the S&P 500’s climb.
High Beta stocks and Cyclicals are leading the charge — a textbook sign of risk-on behavior.
Market breadth is strong, with the Advance-Decline Line...
That’s a new 8-month high for my custom Risk-On Index — and it just broke above a key trendline.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The green line in the top panel is my custom Risk-On Index.
The red line in the bottom panel is my custom Risk-Off Index.
The Takeaway:The Risk-On Index is a clean gauge of risk appetite that blends key assets like copper, high-yield bonds, the Aussie dollar, semiconductors, and high beta.
And right now, it’s sending a clear message — buyers are getting aggressive.
Meanwhile, the Risk-Off Index is heading in the opposite direction. After failing to hold above a key support and resistance level, it’s rolling over again — but hasn’t yet broken below its own trendline.
Together, they signal a clear shift in positioning: away from defense and back toward risk.
The last time we saw this kind of dual confirmation was late 2022. That marked the start of a brand new bull market in equities.
