Year 3 Was Meant to Grind — It’s Running Instead 🏃‍♂️

Today's number is... 214

We are 214 trading sessions deep, and Year 3 of a bull market looks nothing like the average flat grind.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• Year 1 is shown in dark blue, with its average in light blue.
• Year 2 is shown in dark gray, with its average in light gray.
• Year 3 is shown in red, with its average in light red.

The Takeaway: Year 3 is usually the fatigue phase of a bull market.

The historical path is flat and choppy. But 214 trading days into this Year 3, the market isn’t rolling over — it’s running ahead of the average.

Volatility has been present. Sharp pullbacks and quick reversals have tested traders.

But instead of breaking down, the tape has absorbed the weakness and pushed to new highs.

When a bull refuses to behave like past cycles, it’s a signal.

Leadership is strong, participation is broad, and demand keeps showing up at every dip.

When history says stall but price says strength, you side with price.

The risk isn’t being early to weakness — it’s being late to persistence.

Missing the upside of a trend that refuses to quit is far more costly than anticipating a downturn that hasn’t arrived.

Markets don’t reward anticipation — they reward trend following.

Price is telling us this bull still has fuel, even if history says it should be running on fumes.

The real edge lies for traders willing to trust the tape over the template.

So, does this bull keep outrunning history — or snap back toward it?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts

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