Energy resets at key support as capital rotates into metals.
By Sam Gatlin, Jason Perz
April 17, 2026
Markets are a forward-looking discounting mechanism, and this week was a perfect example.
After weeks of rising geopolitical tension, the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil chokepoint, reopened to tanker traffic.
That single development was enough to unwind a massive amount of fear premium that had been built into the energy complex.
Heating Oil dropped more than 10%, and Crude Oil fell nearly 9%. Even Gasoline, which has been showing notable relative strength, still declined roughly 5%.
On the surface, it looked like the story had changed in the blink of an eye.
But the charts tell a different story...
Because energy stocks had already been correcting for weeks.
After an unprecedented run of 14 consecutive up weeks, the Energy Sector $XLE peaked at the end of March and quietly pulled back about 15% before this news even hit.
In other words, the stock market was already discounting a shift in the narrative.
Now, price is sitting right where it matters most.
The XLE is retesting the volume-weighted average price, anchored to the late-2025 lows, the level that preceded the historic rally we saw in Q1.
This is the line in the sand. If buyers are going to step in and defend this trend, it'll happen here.
And we think that's exactly what's about to happen because nothing about this looks like a top.
It looks like a reset after a historic move.
At the same time, the U.S. Dollar is telling a similar story.
After pulling back alongside energy over the past few weeks, the dollar is now sitting at a key level of former resistance, one that’s attempting to flip into support.
If XLE is going to catch a bid here, we expect the dollar to do the same. These two have been moving together, and the odds favor the positive correlation remaining in place.
So while everyone is focused on the headline-driven selloff in energy…
We’re looking at what’s working.
And right now, that’s metals.
Our Green Revolution Index, an equal-weight basket of rare earths, Lithium, Copper, Cobalt, and Nickel, just broke out to new multi-year highs.
This was a decisive resolution from a textbook base that had been forming for months.
So long as the buyers hold their ground here, we expect the path of least resistance to remain higher for the foreseeable future.
And within this area of the market, one group continues to stand out above the rest.
Lithium miners.
The Lithium Miners ETF $LITP is up roughly 50% since its late-March low and more than 250% from its 2025 bottom.
That’s what persistent, momentum-driven leadership looks like.
And we’re leaning into it.
This week, we put money to work in a small-cap Lithium name as part of our broader push into green metals.
Because when a group is acting this well, we want to participate.
Energy - Commercial hedgers aggressively sold WTI and Brent Crude Oil to lock in their gains on their physical inventory as the price is quickly coming back to earth.
Crypto - Commercials unwound nearly 200 contracts from one of their largest net-short Bitcoin positions ever. This is what we want to see as the price is resolving a tactical reversal pattern.
Metals - Commercial hedgers added nearly 11,000 contracts to one of their largest net-short Copper positions in years. At the same time, the price closed the week at a fresh all-time high.
