After a multi-week shakeout, energy looks poised to make a fresh leg higher.
By Sam Gatlin, Jason Perz
April 24, 2026
The best trends don’t end with a bang. They pause, reset, and give you another chance.
And that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now across the energy complex.
After one of the most explosive multi-month runs we’ve ever seen, sentiment has shifted quickly over the past few weeks.
Prices have pulled back, headlines have turned cautious, and suddenly the same group that couldn’t go down a few weeks ago is now being ignored again.
But if you zoom out and look at the charts, nothing about this trend is broken. In fact, this is exactly what you’d expect to see in a supercycle.
Let’s start with our Supercycle Energy Futures Composite, an equal-weight basket of Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Gasoline, and Natural Gas futures.
After rallying more than 500% in just two years from the 2020 lows, this index has carved out a massive accumulation pattern.
And after breaking out earlier this year, the price has pulled back into a key level of polarity, a former resistance zone that’s now turning into support.
So long as this level holds, the path of least resistance is higher from here, with about 50% of upside back toward those 2022 highs.
But it's not just the underlying commodities that have our attention.
We’re seeing the same story play out in the relative trends.
Energy versus technology exploded higher in the first quarter, as capital rotated aggressively out of growth and into real assets.
And over the past few weeks, that move has unwound just as quickly.
But now this ratio is right back at a key level of polarity. At a minimum, this suggests energy is likely to stop underperforming technology.
More likely, it’s setting up for another leg of outperformance.
And then there’s what’s happening under the surface. While the headlines focus on the pullback in front-month contracts, the deferred curves are telling a very different story.
The December contracts for Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Gasoline are all showing strength. That’s the market looking ahead and anticipating further strength from the energy complex.
First, let's look at the December Crude Oil futures.
After a failed breakdown earlier this year, the price ripped higher by roughly 40% in a single month.
And since then, it has been consolidating above a key shelf of former highs that dates back to the 2022 peak.
This is a healthy digestion of gains after the strongest rally we've seen in years. And as long as December Crude Oil futures continue to hold this level, the setup remains constructive for a fresh leg higher.
Heating Oil is even stronger.
December Heating Oil futures are already printing fresh all-time highs after rallying roughly 50% off the December lows.
There’s no evidence of distribution here, just persistent demand.
And December Gasoline futures are quietly doing the same thing.
December Gasoline futures broke out of a textbook accumulation pattern earlier this year, paused, and are now resolving higher again to new all-time highs.
What we have here is confirmation from the entire energy complex. This is a classic supercycle, and we think it has plenty of room left to run.
So while the past few weeks may have felt uncomfortable, this pullback has done exactly what it needed to do.
It reset sentiment, worked off overbought conditions, and brought price back into logical areas where risk can be defined.
This is how trends sustain themselves.
And more importantly, we see an opportunity to make money. We are actively looking to deploy fresh capital in the energy space as these setups continue to develop.
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And if you’re not already a member, now is the time to get involved.
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And if this trend continues the way we think it will, there’s still plenty of upside left to capture.
