Grains are breaking out, livestock are hitting all-time highs, and the bull market is reaching America’s farm country.
By Sam Gatlin, Jason Perz
May 1, 2026
There’s a certain kind of bull market you can see on a screen, and then there’s the kind you can hear in an auction barn.
This week, we’re talking about the second kind.
For the past several months, we’ve been pounding the table on the idea that this commodity supercycle is broadening.
It started with Gold, then the base and industrial metals joined the party.
Then energy and agriculture woke up late last year.
And now, the rotation is making its way straight into the heartland of the United States.
That’s where Sam is located, and that’s where his family has farmed since Abraham Lincoln passed the Homestead Act in 1862.
And right now, the charts are starting to line up with what people in farm country are seeing in real life.
A supercycle isn’t just a line on a chart. You can see it in truck beds, feedlots, grain bins, and cattle auctions.
And the message from both the charts and the auction barn confirms that the heartland is in a bull market.
Let’s start with the Supercycle Report Grains Index, our equal-weight basket of Soybeans, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Corn, Wheat, Rough Rice, Oats, and Canola.
This group had one of the nastiest bear markets of the 21st century after peaking in 2022. From high to low, the index fell roughly 45%.
It was the kind of downtrend that clears out excess and resets sentiment.
After that brutal decline, grains spent years carving out a textbook double-bottom formation. The sellers kept trying to press the group lower, but they couldn’t get the job done.
Slowly, the trend shifted from down to sideways.
Now the index is finally emerging higher and reclaiming a key shelf of former highs.
Even better, price has flipped that old resistance zone into support. That’s the classic polarity shift we look for at the beginning of new uptrends.
And now this group appears to be entering a brand-new secular advance.
Beneath the surface, we’re already seeing serious strength...
Soybean Oil is up more than 50% this year, while Wheat and Canola are up more than 20%.
These are significant moves, and we think it’s just getting started.
On its own, this development in grains is a big story. But there's more happening in agriculture right now.
While grains are breaking out of a multi-year base, livestock are already hitting new all-time highs.
Our Supercycle Report Livestock Index, an equal-weight basket of Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs, closed this week at a fresh all-time high.
This group peaked back in 2014, spent more than a decade building a massive base, then broke out in early 2025.
And after a big multi-month run, the group has spent the past several months digesting those gains.
Now it’s breaking out again and looks poised to run significantly higher.
Historically, grains and livestock often move in opposite directions, and here's why.
When grain prices rise, feed costs increase, which puts pressure on livestock margins.
On the flip side, when livestock prices rise, grains don’t always follow.
That negative relationship has existed for a long time, but supercycles are different.
In a real commodity supercycle, participation expands beyond the usual boundaries.
In these environments, old relationships bend.
Markets that “shouldn’t” rise together start rising together anyway because the broader force is bigger than any single input cost or historical correlation.
That’s what makes this moment so important, because the same bull market is pulling both sides of agriculture higher at the same time.
And this week, Sam got to see it up close.
Sam went to the cattle auction to do a little boots-on-the-ground research, and can now say with great certainty that there's a strong bid for cattle.
You didn’t need a Bloomberg terminal to see it. All you had to do was watch the bidding.
That’s one of the fun parts about analyzing commodity markets...
We're not looking at some fake crypto token.
These markets are real and affect everyone, whether that's through higher prices for ribeyes and old fashioned cocktails or higher prices at the gas station.
And right now, you can choose to lose purchasing power, or you can benefit from these rising commodity prices like we are at the Supercycle Report.
For our members, keep an eye on your inbox. New trade alerts are coming.
And if you’re not already a member, now is the time to get involved.
It only takes one good trade to pay for the entire service.
And if this trend continues the way we think it will, there’s still plenty of upside left to capture.
