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Follow the Flow (12-05-2022)

December 5, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

Easier To Find New Highs

December 3, 2022

Let me ask you this: In bear markets does it historically get easier and easier to find stocks making new all-time highs?

Where I grew up, new all-time highs, yet alone more and more of them every day, are not something that we normally see in bear markets.

And here we are. I can't remember the last time it was this easy to find stocks breaking out to new highs. And not just new 3-month highs or even 52-week highs.

Stocks are breaking out to new ALL-TIME Highs.

And not just in one or two sectors.

We're seeing it in Financials, Industrials, Technology, Energy, Healthcare, Staples, Telecom and more.

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The Hall of Famers (12-2-2022)

December 2, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing...

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Give Your Portfolio a Jolt

December 2, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Precious metals shine as the dollar drops.

It makes sense our bullish metal trades are working in this environment. But how are less dollar-sensitive contracts faring?

Let’s check back on two recent trades from October, coffee and orange juice.

First up is the orange juice futures contract:

OJ came within striking distance of our upside objective last month.

It’s now carving out a near-term top while posting a bearish momentum divergence – not the most bullish price action.

Regardless, I want to give OJ the benefit of the doubt as long as it holds above our 191 risk level. All bets are off if it breaks below that mark.

At the same time, selling a breakdown here does not appeal to me. The price memory below 191 has "chop-fest" written all over it!

And,...

People Are Angry...Good!

December 2, 2022

I'm not sure what everyone is so angry about, but I like it.

The pessimism out there is off the charts.

Investors are scared.

Risk aversion is dominating. Risk appetite is non-existent.

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Special Report: Freshly Squeezed

December 2, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

As our Premium Members already know, we have a laundry list of scans that we run internally on an almost daily basis.

Different market environments, naturally, are more conducive to certain scans and less so to others.

We think our “Freshly Squeezed” scan is perfect for the current market. With so many individual issues in massive drawdowns as the broader market begins to turn a corner, there are going to be some serious short-covering rallies in some of the most beaten-down names.

In fact, it’s already starting to happen. Infamous meme stock, AMC Entertainment $AMC was up 25% at its highs today (not on a closing basis).

Our scan is quite simple. It is designed to identify stocks with heavy short positions. When a stock is heavily shorted, it means there are natural incremental buyers. Bulls need incremental buyers, as this is the only way price can move higher. When shorts are proven wrong, they have to buy their shares back to close out their position. 

We pair this short-interest data with short-term momentum overlays, as this is the match that is needed to spark a short squeeze...

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Will Rates Finally Fall?

December 1, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

The strong US dollar and higher interest rates have dominated the conversation this year.

But the direction of the US Dollar Index $DXY has changed, breaking its year-to-date trendline earlier this month. 

Will interest rates follow?

Not yet! So far, the uptrend remains intact for the five-, 10-, and 30-year yields. We have to give these trends the benefit of the doubt, for now.

Despite their persistence, it seems more a matter of when not if rates do eventually roll over.

Based on information from the US bond market and developed-market European yields, it could happen sooner than you might expect.

Let’s break it down.

First, we can’t dismiss the middle-long end of the curve holding above year-to-date trendlines.

Our outlook remains higher for these yields as long as their trend lines hold. If they...

Line Go Up, Again...

December 1, 2022

I continue to wonder what people are so angry about.

More and more stocks keep going up.

Fewer and fewer are going down.

More sectors are participating.

More countries are acting strong.

What's the problem?