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International Hall of Famers (11-25-2022)

November 25, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall Of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:...

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Commodities Revisit Critical Support

November 25, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

In late September, we highlighted the prior-cycle highs for the top commodity contracts.

The question was whether these levels would hold as support. So far, they have. But it’s two months later, and we’re asking the same question as those 2018 highs come into play again.

Let’s check back in on these critical levels of resistance turned support for clarity heading into year-end.

For crude oil futures, 76 is still our line in the sand:

It coincides with its 2018 highs, its July pivot highs from last year, and this year’s September pivot lows. Former resistance has turned into support.

Now, will this newfound support hold?

Based on Monday’s action, yes!

Crude began this week slicing through our level of interest, only to reverse significantly higher by the close. Monday’s bounce off support was...

Stocks In Bull Markets

November 25, 2022

Bull Markets are a way to describe the environment.

Individual stocks do not enter "bull markets". That's not a thing.

In a bull market, more stocks are going up than going down. In bear markets you see the exact opposite.

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Bonds Pump the Brakes

November 24, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds are bouncing off key levels of potential support.

For some, it’s a former low. And for others, it’s a downside extension level. Regardless, we can all rejoice that bonds have stopped falling.

That doesn’t mean we’re rushing out to buy Treasuries. Instead, it signals a constructive start to a potential bottoming process for the bond market and relief from downside volatility.

Let’s check out the charts!

First up is the long-duration Zero Coupon ETF $ZROZ:

ZROZ has rebounded above its former 2014 lows, posting a potential failed breakdown. Risks are to the upside above 82 with potential resistance at the shelf of former lows around 100.

It’s a similar story for the Treasury Bond ETF $TLT:

T-bonds reclaimed their former 2014 lows on Wednesday. As long as TLT holds above 101.50, our tactical...

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2 to 100 Club

2 to 100 Club (11-23-2022)

November 24, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...

[Options] Building Strength

November 23, 2022

After we got past sharing each others' Thanksgiving dinner menus, wine pairings, and recipe swaps, the All Star Charts gang got back to business this morning hunting for trade ideas.

We arrived at today's idea in a roundabout way:

"Discretionary stocks have been the 'least shitty' performers as of late."

"We're seeing relative strength in 'da homies. [Homebuilders]"

"In that sector, Lennar $LEN is showing the best relative strength relative to the others."

...and that is a taste of how the Thanksgiving sausage is made.

So let's dig into some visuals to highlight what we're seeing.

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The Peso Leads the Charge

November 22, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s time to short the USD. 

Based on the weight of the evidence, our bias for the US dollar has flipped bearish

Our first shot at betting on a weaker dollar was successful, as the EUR/USD hit its target earlier in the month. That’s encouraging!

But it’s important to note most dollar pairs are running into logical levels of support or resistance.

Many of these charts are messy at best.

Except the Mexican peso.

In fact, no currency has stood its ground during the dollar's parabolic advance like MXN.

List of Uptrends Keeps Getting Longer

November 22, 2022

This doesn't have to be complicated.

Is the list of stocks and sectors in uptrends getting longer or is it getting shorter?

Are we seeing more stocks breaking down to new lows, or fewer?

If you can count, then you know the answer.

The question is, are you even willing to count?