What's driving stock prices?

Remember, over the short- to intermediate-term, stock prices don't move based on the fundamentals. They move up and down based on positioning, or in many cases, a lack of positioning.

When no one wanted Tech and mega-cap growth at the end of 2022, that was when Tech and mega-cap growth really got going.

Before that, when everyone wanted high growth Tech, Cathy Wood was the next Warren Buffett, and that's when Tech stopped working for a while - and is still not working in many of cases.

That's sentiment driving those things.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Aside from gold’s new all-time highs, commodities look rough.

Natty gas is falling below two bucks. Copper is retesting four. And corn is rolling to its lowest level since 2020.

But of all the vulnerable commodities contracts, only one area stands out as a viable short: cattle.

Feeder cattle futures closed below 250 this afternoon, triggering a sell signal:

Notice the 14-day RSI led price by registering a new multi-month low ahead of today’s breakdown. The waning momentum speaks to weakening demand and the possibility of a swift move lower.  

As highlighted in June, our downside targets are now 234 and 175.

Live cattle futures also...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US Treasuries are sticking a bullish reversal – an admirable feat following an unforgettable selloff.

If you aren’t buying bonds yet, it’s time to reconsider.

Here's the US T-Bond ETF $TLT trading above a rising 200-day moving average as it violates a multi-year downtrend line:

These are the early signs of a trend reversal.

Now, bond bulls want to witness the 14-week RSI post fresh multi-year highs. (We may see such a print following today’s action.)

Heading into the close, the 30-year T-bond is registering its largest one-week rate of change since spring 2020. And on a more tactical time frame, the 14-day RSI is reaching overbought conditions. 

Both data points suggest an initiation thrust, supporting further upside for US Treasuries – a move that could last weeks or even months.

But who knows how long this bond will rally? I’m guessing months, maybe quarters, but not years.

...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...

The market hates it when bonds are making outsized moves.

It's less about when rates are rising or when rates are falling.

The bigger point here is that when interest rates are making very aggressive directional moves, that's what brings the volatility to the stock market.

And that's exactly what's happening:

We've been here before.

It's been 24 years since we've been here. 

But this is familiar territory

We saw historic underperformance from Technology stocks immediately after the sector reached the same levels it just reached last month.

Should we expect the same? In other words, should Tech keep underperforming, paving the way for other sectors like Financials, Industrials, Energy and Healthcare to outperform for a while?

Is that why the equally-weighted S&P500 just closed the month at new all-time highs? Because the largest weighting of the Market-cap weighted version is struggling to make any progress?

Here's Technology relative to the S&P500 getting back to those former highs from early 2000:

This is the video recording of our August 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Remember when anything priced in yen was trending higher?

It wasn’t too long ago that if you were looking for an uptrend, all you had to do was throw the yen in the denominator, and voila.

Just last month, the dollar hit a new 34-year high against the yen—levels not seen since the 1980s.

But the tables are turning in favor of the Japanese currency.  

While most central banks are either cutting interest rates or considering future rate cuts, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is hiking—a policy shift that puts a bid beneath the yen…

A couple of months ago, I highlighted buying yen futures above .6500.

Fast forward to today, and I’ve adjusted the entry-level to the former 2022 and 2023 lows at approximately .6625:

The shelf of...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money." Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical analysis to the mix,...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as...

This is where it all starts folks.

The story starts and ends with the Bond Market.

You may not like it. I know I certainly don't. But that's the world we've always lived in. And it's the world I would expect us to be in for a long long time.

The bond market is $130 Trillion. That's compared to a mere $50 Trillion US Stock Market. The total Global stock market is slightly over $100 Trillion, for perspective.