There are stocks going up and there are stocks that are not going up.
What you're not really seeing is many stocks going down.
That's probably the best way to describe this market.
We've outlined our long positions, particularly those that have been showing relative strength and positive momentum. Those areas are working.
But most stocks are not.
You can see the difference in the Value Line indexes, when we compare them to the S&P500. Think of these more of the "Median" stock:
You can see the same thing in other areas we look for confirmation of risk appetite. Both the Aussie/Yen and the High Beta / Low Volatility ratios are not confirming the new highs in S&Ps:
The Advance / Decline lines for both the NYSE (common stocks only) and the Nasdaq peaked a while ago.
It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. You can read more about the reasoning behind this post here.
We're just interested in aggregating all of the charts we put together throughout the week and organizing them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
One thing that stood out to me this week was this table of new highs and new lows. It's a great way to visualize what's going on underneath the surface:
But here's the Household Asset Allocation Stocks vs Bonds ratio:
And finally, I came across this old gem to remind us how important relative strength is for stocks and sectors in the market. Or in this case, a lack of relative strength.
There were plenty of warning signs in financials, particularly Lehman and Bear...
It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. You can read more about the reasoning behind this post here.
We're just interested in aggregating all of the charts we put together throughout the week and organizing them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
One thing that stood out to me this week is the lack of deterioration underneath the surface.
We're just not getting an expansion in new lows.
Fewer new highs? Yes definitely. For a while now.
But more new lows?
Not broadly speaking yet, no.
For the indexes to go lower, you need more and more stocks going lower. It's just math.
And even if you look at short-term new lows, we're not seeing expansion yet either: