All Star Charts Gold Rush Articles

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Don’t let a few days of selling pressure fool you.

Despite intense gold, copper, and crude oil pullbacks, many commodity-related assets are flashing buy signals.

For instance…

The Global Carbon ETF $KRBN:

KRBN holds a basket of European and U.S. carbon allowance futures – also known as carbon credits. Companies use these credits to offset the costs of releasing greenhouse gases.

Interestingly, the similarities between the carbon allowances, copper versus gold, and silver versus gold charts are uncanny. All three are violating multi-year downtrend lines, suggesting bullish trend reversals and a risk-on market environment.

We like KRBN long above 35, targeting 56.

That’s it for today. We’ll be back with more next week.

Thanks for reading.

Premium members, be sure to check out the Commodity Trade of the Week below.

Trade of the Week

Today, we’re outlining Nutrien $NTR, a $30B Canadian agricultural inputs company:

Nutrien recently broke a multi-year downtrend line at a crucial polarity level going back to the IPO. 

We’...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Silver futures are rising to the occasion.

The silver-to-gold ratio went from posting fresh six-month highs last Monday to hitting 16-month highs by Friday’s close.

Silver is ripping on absolute and relative terms, and this can mean only one thing: 

Risk-on!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Silver futures are rising to the occasion.

The silver-to-gold ratio went from posting fresh six-month highs last Monday to hitting sixteen-month highs by Friday’s close.

Silver is ripping on absolute and relative terms, and this can mean only one thing: 

Risk-on!

Check out Silver driving home an explosive resolution following a successful pullback:

The pullback is another name for a retest – a common feature following a significant breakout. (Some use the term “throwback” to distinguish the action following an upside resolution from a “pullback” that displaces a downside resolution. But they’re all pullbacks to me.)

Interestingly, top-flight international soccer uses the same term for a particular goal-scoring tactic—a player takes the ball to the touchline and then passes to a teammate at the top of the box, who waits to direct the ball into the back of the net. 

Premier League Champions Manchester City and Runners-up Arsenal successfully applied the pullback in a match last week. (One can only hope Liverpool’s incoming manager, Arne Slot, is taking...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Mining stocks are sticking their breakouts as our list of trending tickers grows. 

The Junior Gold Miners ETF $GDXJ is breaking out, platinum futures are completing a year-long base, and the silver-to-gold ratio is posting new highs.

With risk-seeking behavior creeping back into precious metals, it’s time to turn up the heat…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Mining stocks are sticking their breakouts as our list of trending tickers grows. 

The Junior Gold Miners ETF $GDXJ is breaking out, platinum futures are completing a yearlong base, and the silver-to-gold ratio is posting new highs.

With risk-seeking behavior creeping back into precious metals, it’s time to turn up the heat…

Check out the silver/gold ratio printing a fresh six-month high while violating a multi-year downtrend line:

Finally, Silver is bringing it!

I won’t get too carried away by these six-month highs. But it’s a start. 

Trend reversals begin with trendline breaks. The silver-to-gold ratio is piercing a downtrend line drawn from the 2021 peak, signaling the early stages of a bullish reversal while revealing an uptick in risk appetite.

Plus, GDXJ is breaking out!

We have our levels for Gold and Silver, so let’s focus on a mining stock trading at a key area of former resistance.

Here’s McEwan Mining Inc. $MUX, a $500M gold miner based in Toronto, Canada:

MUX is pulling back to a...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Crude oil is searching for a foothold. Copper is climbing. And Gold is clinging to its record high.

Like most of the market, raw materials are weathering the storm with varying degrees of success.

Nevertheless, today’s commodity deck includes plenty of uplifting charts – plus a trade you’ll want to take home over the weekend…

Check out the Water Resources ETF $PHO posting a new all-time high:

JC discussed PHO at the start of 2022 during a Live Strategy Session.

We’ve all navigated twists and turns, picking up our fair share of gray hair. Two years later, PHO is finally moving higher.

These updated levels place the Water Resources ETF roughly 4% above our buy signal. I like raising the entry point to 65 and the target to 90. 

According to Edwards and Magee’s 3% rule (price closing 3% above a defined risk level), PHO has posted a valid breakout. 

All aboard! 

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stock market bulls are scooping and scoring as the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all show green. 

Stocks and rocks should benefit on the heels of renewed rate-cut hopes. 

Today, I’ll outline a name that checks both boxes. 

Spoiler alert: It’s a prime candidate for a short squeeze…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Stock market bulls are scooping and scoring as the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow indexes all see green. 

Stocks and rocks should benefit on the heels of renewed rate-cut hopes. 

Today, I’ll outline a name that checks both boxes. 

Spoiler alert: It’s a prime candidate for a short squeeze…

Check out the precious metal trading company, A-Mark Precious Metals $AMRK:

A-Mark popped up on our freshly squeezed scan, carrying a 23.6% short interest with ten days to cover.

While AMRK proved an easy short last fall, remaining short-sellers may have outstayed their welcome. AMRK has gained more than 70% since late February. Buyers are now driving prices to the upper bounds of a multi-year range, just shy of a new all-time high.

Buying base breakouts and riding new all-times are two of our favorite trading pastimes. Plus, vulnerable bears provide an added perk as they will likely fuel an explosive rally.

If and when...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The talking heads are about to call the top in commodities.

It’s coming, so we might as well prepare. 

In fact, it’ll only get louder if the US dollar follows crude’s lead…

Crude oil and the dollar have traded in sync for a few years now (mainly due to the strong positive correlation between the buck and interest rates).

During Q3 of last year, the energy sector rallied with the US dollar while most of the market fell under pressure. 

This relationship has been so strong we actually like swapping bonds for energy stocks in the new sixty-forty portfolio.

But crude oil, interest rates, and the US dollar have rallied for almost four straight months. 

They’re all due for a correction.

Here’s crude oil leading the way, violating a multi-month trendline:

If the dollar tracks lower here, sellers will likely trounce black gold. Energy stocks will follow.

Ding-dong, inflation is dead! 

Which...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Random discovery, buying cheap, and riding the wave…

According to long-time gold mining investor Tommy Humphreys, these are three ways to score outsized returns in the junior mining space.

I’ll admit the first two strategies are foreign to me. But I can get behind riding a wave, especially when it jibes with a trend-following mentality.

Check out Tommy’s favorite gold mining stock, or "story," as he puts it…

Random discovery, buying cheap, and riding the wave…

According to long-time gold mining investor Tommy Humphreys, these are three ways to score outsized returns in the junior mining space.

I’ll admit the first two strategies are foreign to me. But I can get behind riding a wave, especially when it jibes with a trend-following mentality.

Check out Tommy’s favorite gold mining stock or story, as he puts it…

Aris Mining $ARMN, a $500M miner based out of Vancouver, CA:

It’s a great-looking chart: price breaking out of a multi-month base, pullback finding support at former resistance, and relative strength suggesting further outperformance in the coming months.

But Tommy didn’t mention any of those bullish data points. 

Instead, he shared the fundamental story: Aris Mining is a profitable business run by serial outperformers (common themes valued by legendary investor Rick Rule).

So when a reader emailed me over the weekend asking for profit targets in ARMN, I...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Natural gas futures are due for a pop.

It might sound silly as the widow-maker is falling back toward its mid-1990s lows.

But this is a logical level to witness a sustained rally. Especially when you consider previous cycles and where Natural Gas is trading relative to crude…

Earlier this week, JC mentioned the crude oil vs. natural gas ratio during an internal strategy session.

He tracked this relationship when he day-traded natty gas, using it as a mean reversion indicator.

Fast-forward to today, and the crude-to-natural-gas ratio is retreating from its highest level in more than a decade.

The last time the ratio hit these levels, natural gas futures ripped 225% in less than two years. 

That’s what natty gas does! It also peaks and troughs – almost like clockwork – within a four-year cycle:

Notice the cyclical lows in 2012, 2016, and 2020 corresponding with the cycle highs in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

Interestingly, a seasonal component also emerges at the cycle lows as natural gas enters its most bullish three-month period (August - October). All...