All Star Charts Gold Rush Articles

It has been over 1,600 days since Crude Oil futures traded below zero in 2020, which preceded one of its best 2-year bull markets in history.

Since the peak in early 2022, energy has been a tough trade for those with trend-following strategies and a favorable one for mean-reversion strategies.

Crude Oil futures are at the lower bound of a multi-year range, and the Energy Sector SPDR $XLE has the fewest percent of stocks above their 200-day moving average out of all 11 sectors. 

Energy has been a laggard recently.

However, it's important to remember where energy has come from. Crude Oil futures went from below 0 to 130 in less than two years, and the XLE is the second best-performing sector since Covid, lagging only Technology $XLK:

The outperformance has been in the energy sector. Just not recently...

But that could be changing soon with energy futures digging in at major levels of interest.

Crude Oil futures are bouncing off a key level of polarity:

This is what former resistance turning into support looks like...

Last week, Palladium surged nearly 20% after we discussed buying the futures, and Gold reached a new all-time high.

In response, precious metals mining stocks ripped higher for their best week since 2020.

The momentum behind some of these moves is absurd. For example, CDE, GATO, AG, and NGD all rallied over 30% last week.

Let's talk about what we're doing about it:

We've been obnoxiously talking about soft commodities lately.

But, it's for a good reason! And it all comes down to relative strength.

Aside from a few pockets of strength, the trends have been a mess in the broader commodity complex.

Products like Natural gas and precious metals have been hard to ignore if you're involved in the commodities markets.

There's more though. 

Orange Juice futures made a new all-time high this week and look primed to begin a new leg higher.

Let's talk about how we're playing it:

First, some context: 

Like Cocoa, Orange Juice futures have gone wild in recent years. OJ has rallied 450% in the last 5-years, while Cocoa rallied nearly as much in half of the time. 

The momentum behind products like Cocoa and...

Last month, we discussed the Palladium ETF $PALL hitting fresh 7-year lows, breaching a critical support level.

However, the bears could not gain any downside momentum, and it seems like we're nearing a cyclical trough.

Commercial hedgers have never carried a larger net-long position. Historically, it has been prudent to not bet against the smart money in commodities markets.

And one of our favorite long-term momentum indicators, the monthly MACD, has now given us a buy signal. That said, it's still a bit messy in the short term.

Let's talk about it.

With fall approaching us, things are beginning to change.

The weather is perfect for golfing, the Kansas City Chiefs are back to dominating the NFL, and it's the best time of the year for Natural Gas futures.

In July, we outlined asymmetric risk/reward setups in Natural Gas futures and 4 natural gas stocks.

As we expected, it has taken some time for these setups to come to fruition. 

However, the cleanest fossil fuel has carved out a textbook reversal pattern and looks poised to blast off any day now.

Here's the average monthly performance for Natural Gas futures over the past 3 decades:

Natural Gas has a tendency to rally in the fall as September and October are the two best months of the year.

The longer-term structure is also shaping up quite nicely:

Historically, we've seen demand for methane step in at this level time and again.

But these bottoms have been messy...

So instead of getting chopped up in a range, we like the monthly MACD as a mechanism for timing our entry.

This long-term...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Precious metals stocks have been ripping since Gold futures resolved a multi-decade accumulation pattern earlier this year.

But most of these stocks don't have much short interest...

We love to trade stocks with high short interest as there is a built in catalyst of forced buyers when the stock makes an upside move.

Today, we're outlining a trade for a precious metals stock with an extremely high days-to-cover ratio and short interest.

First, check out this long-term uptrend in A-Mark Precious Metals $AMRK:

There aren't many precious metals stocks that look this good...

Here's how we're trading it:

It's no secret that we're in a bull market for precious metals.

We made the argument for a new secular uptrend for these shiny rocks in last week's Gold Rush video.

Why do we think this is the case?

Gold futures have been printing fresh all-time highs seemingly every day, and precious metals stocks have followed suit with new highs of their own.

When you go back and study the previous cycles you'll notice that every bull market is characterized by more and more stocks making new highs along with the underlying futures contracts.

So let's take a step back and look at some stocks that are making new highs.

If you're like me, you probably spend too much money on coffee every morning.

And that's not likely to change... but that's okay!

We can profit from an upside move in the commodity and hedge our exposure.

We've had tremendous success trading Cocoa futures in the last several years. 

We're also close to buying Cotton futures as they look to trap the bears below a key polarity zone.

There's a trend here: soft commodities keep rewarding us for owning them.

We think Coffee is next.

In today's Gold Rush video, we discussed our outlook for a new secular bull market in the yellow metal.

We also covered Commitment of Traders positioning, mining stocks, and much more.

We dug into our latest blog post as well, providing some much-needed color.

We covered Gold vs. Commodities, the best risk/reward setups in precious metals stocks, and more.

Here's the video:

Gold has not only been shining in absolute terms but is also dramatically outperforming the broader commodity complex.

While energy chops around in a multi-year range and cattle carve out a distribution pattern, the glittering ore refuses to quit printing new all-time highs.

It has paid to pick our spots wisely in the commodities complex as it's been a very bifurcated asset class this cycle.

Live and Feeder Cattle are carving out distribution patterns.

Energy has been a rangebound mess.

Meanwhile, the relative strength has been in the soft commodities and precious metals.

Gold recently put the finishing touches on a multi-decade accumulation pattern.

Cocoa has resolved a 12-year base and rallied over 400% to new all-time highs.

Coffee is flirting with new multi-decade highs after completing a tactical reversal pattern.

And we're betting that Cotton will participate to the upside with the rest of the soft complex soon. The soft and fluffy commodity is on the verge of trapping the bears below a key level of polarity.

We want to continue leaning into the relative strength in soft commodities.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It’s good to be a gold bug.

New all-time highs and fresh breakouts are dotting the charts. Buy signals are flashing left and right. And even the laggards – Palladium and Platinum – are refusing to break down. 

Best of all, Gold has a one-track mind: up and to the right!