All Star Charts Gold Rush Articles

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

People are asking me if gold’s breakout is the real deal.

All I can do is smile, state my bullish outlook, and draw a line in the sand.

Of course, I can’t resist adding an obnoxious upside target or two (the higher, the better).

Hopefully, it sounds simple. That’s the goal! It never pays to overcomplicate price action…. 

If you’re still wondering whether precious metals are a viable investment despite gold’s new all-time highs, let’s identify the underlying trend…

The gold rally off the 2018 lows led to a multi-year consolidation that is now resolving higher — uptrend intact. 

Plus, what an impressive stick from gold last month:

Richard Wycoff would call last month’s candlestick a wide-bodied bar — an indication of willing buyers. It’s a significant sign of strength.

Gold futures rose 8.94%, closing near the March highs and solidifying its breakout.

If gold’s bullish candlestick, underlying uptrend, and new all-time highs fail to squash your lingering doubts, check out the gold miners…

The Gold Miners ETF $GDX also enjoyed quite the bid last month,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Black Gold is breaking out!

Crude oil is flipping weeks of indecision into conviction following a hard retest that frustrated traders earlier this month. 

Let’s take a look…

Check out crude’s upside resolution to fresh five-month highs:

Yesterday marked the completion of a tight bull flag – a typical characteristic of an uptrend.

The path of least resistance points higher toward our 95 target. 

However, I would be remiss not to mention momentum. The 14-day RSI has yet to register an overbought reading above 70. 

This isn’t an immediate concern. But if the crude oil rally does have legs, momentum will reach overbought conditions. In fact, the energy sector’s recent performance is showing no signs of stress.

The Oil Refiners ETF $CRAK is trading at all-time highs, and the Energy Sector ETF $XLE isn’t far behind. Plus, energy stocks are popping up everywhere on our bottoms-up scans—from the International Hall of Famers to Freshly Squeezed.

It’s not just oil and gas names. Natural resource stocks are ripping through our breakout levels,...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Pop the champagne!

Gold reached new all-time highs. 

Now, whether we consider the shiny yellow rock a viable investment is another story.

You know I’m bullish…  

Yet I can’t overlook silver's lack of participation.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Pop the champagne!

Gold reached new all-time highs. 

Now, whether we consider the shiny yellow rock a viable investment is another story.

You know I’m bullish…  

Yet I can’t overlook silver’s lack of participation.

I think of silver as gold’s rambunctious cousin — lots of fun until someone gets hurt — and someone always gets hurt!

Perhaps trading silver isn’t your cup of tea. I don’t blame you.

But silver rallies possess an infectious exuberance. Its rowdy antics and monstrous daily ranges magnetize investors as they attempt to skirt silver’s flame without burning to a crisp. 

Unfortunately, silver isn’t bringing the heat. It has yet to break out, and the silver-to-gold ratio is trending lower.

A similar scenario unfolded last spring when gold ran up against its former all-time highs:

The result: 10 more months of sideways chop.

Despite a likely pullback, gold futures and the Gold Shares ETF $GLD remain buys if they trade above last month’s breakout levels (2,100 and 193, respectively).

But gold will take the scenic route until...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are in the early innings of a secular bull run.

The list of raw materials hitting all-time highs since 2020 includes Gold, Copper, Wheat, Soybean Oil, Cattle,  Orange Juice, Cocoa, Heating Oil, Gasoline, Palm Oil, Lumber, Tin, Rebar, Iron Ore, and Coal. (If that roll call doesn’t scream commodity supercycle, I don’t know what does.) 

It’s an exhaustive list that will only grow in the coming years. Remember, these cycles can last decades. We’re only in year four!

Of course, there are also some laggards amongst the ranks. (ahem, Crude). But don’t lose sight of the bigger picture! 

Even Soybeans are queuing up for new all-time highs…

Check out soybean futures zoomed out to the 1950s:

Prices blasted higher in the mid-70s, tracing the upper bounds of a new trading range that defined prices for the next thirty years.

A similar pattern emerged during the last commodity supercycle in the early to mid-2000s. Soybean futures bottomed in 2002, ripped to the former all-time highs and then pulled back before skyrocketing into a new...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are finally waking up to gold.

Friends and family are blowing up my phone (and this time, it’s not just about baby pics). They’ve noticed gold’s rally to new highs – and they want to know whether to buy physical gold or an ETF — bars or coins. 

But silver has yet to enter the conversation…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are finally waking up to gold.

Friends and family are blowing up my phone (and this time, it’s not just about baby pics). They’ve noticed gold’s rally to new highs – and they want to know whether to buy physical gold or an ETF — bars or coins. 

But silver has yet to enter the conversation…

I get it. New all-time highs have a way of capturing the investor’s collective conscience. 

But while gold is printing new all-time highs, silver futures post a mere multi-month high. 

I’m no fan of the catch-up trade, as I always want to own the strongest name(s), but check out silver’s four-decade base:

What a monster!

Silver reached its peak in early 1980 at roughly 41.50. The bulls didn’t see that level again until the spring of 2011 when price ran just shy of 50.

Spring is ahead today, and the soft, shiny metal is trading at approximately 25. That means it would have to double before hitting a new all-time high. 

I’m not waiting around for silver to complete this half-century base.

Here’s how I want to play it…

A significant...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Metals are working.

Gold is printing new all-time highs. Copper is trading above four bucks. And Palladium…

Well, Palladium has stopped going down.

Considering Palladium’s Commitment of Traders (COT) profile, its tendency to trend with technology stocks, and where it stopped falling…

It’s time to buy!

Check out the long-term Palladium chart stretching back to the late 70s:

Palladium is bouncing off a critical extension level based on the early 1980s decline — a level that acted as resistance for almost two decades.

The principle of polarity is springing into action, just as it did in 2018 when buyers stepped in and defended those former highs. 

Approximately 850 marks this critical area of former resistance turned support and a logical level to trade against. 

Add commercial hedgers’ record-long position, and Palladium could catapult higher in the coming quarters.

Strong hands move markets, mainly the hands of Commercial hedgers. Commercials are the “smart money” with the deepest pockets.   

Historically, they have...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is silencing all the haters – even me!

I’ll admit, I had my doubts. 

But I also carried an unnerving suspicion buyers would strike as soon as I dropped my guard…

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is silencing all the haters – even me!

I’ll admit, I had my doubts. 

But I also carried an unnerving suspicion buyers would strike as soon as I dropped my guard…

Gold futures sliced through our breakout level last week, closing at record highs:

Unbelievable… Or, better yet, undeniable.

Gold not only hit a new all-time high, it broke out with authority as it gained more than 4% last week. 

The path of least resistance points higher toward 2,500 (our initial objective). But the price of gold could go much higher.

Gold is embarking on a new secular bull run:

As it rips to new heights, it will take the entire metal and mining space along for the ride.

But we’re in the early innings of an uptrend that could last for years to come.

Instead of catching falling knives or taking cute catch-up trades, it’s best to simplify our strategy and buy the strongest names. 

Gold mining stocks have suffered for years, and a handful of names were absolutely clobbered last month. A few gold miners are even offering up the mother-of-all mean...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold is up for the sixth day in a row – and it looks like this week’s breakout might be the real deal.

If it is — and gold continues to rip — it’s only a matter of time before copper breaks out too.

Check out the overlay chart of gold and copper futures:

Where gold goes, copper follows. Or perhaps they simply enjoy similar paths.

The rhyme or reason makes no difference. During a commodity bull run, precious and industrial metals will enter a broad markup phase. Gold will not take off on a rip-roaring rally without copper by its side.

I placed a question mark above copper’s former resistance level, marked by the 2011 and 2022 highs. To be clear, the annotation poses the question of when — not if – copper will resolve higher.

But before Dr. Copper can break the psychological barrier of five dollars, it must cut loose above four.

It’s getting close…

Copper futures are carving out a multi-month base as buyers chip away at overhead supply.

An eight-week inverted head-and-shoulders pattern is forming just below the breakout level. I expect this pattern to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

You can’t keep the gold bugs down.

They’re a hearty bunch full of true grit, choosing to focus on the silver lining while persevering through countless downturns.

Gold, on the other hand, has been an easy target…