After a decade of going nowhere, livestock futures are showing signs of life.
While other commodities have recently stolen the spotlight, the livestock space has quietly been forming some of the most powerful bases in the commodities market.
Now we’re seeing breakouts across the board - from Live Cattle to Feeder Cattle, and potentially Lean Hogs next.
Let’s walk through the setup...
Our ASC Livestock Index has broken out above a major shelf of resistance 📈
This equal-weight basket of Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs spent over a decade carving out a massive base, testing the 2014 highs multiple times before finally clearing the level.
That’s the principle of polarity in action: what was once resistance is now support.
With bulls back in control, we’re targeting the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 221. That's almost 25% more upside from the current price!
It’s time to stop fading strength and start riding the uptrend in livestock.
Is it time for Lean Hogs to catch up? 🐷
Lean Hogs futures are lagging, but maybe not for long.
Prices are pushing against a major downtrend line that has defined the highs for the past few years.
In addition, the price has carved out a massive base underneath, and if prices can break above this line, Lean Hog futures could go on a serious run.
We’re watching this one closely.
Feeder Cattle are leading the charge 🚀
Feeder Cattle futures recently put the finishing touches on a textbook multi-decade basing pattern.
Since then, it has been off to the races.
The price closed at a fresh all-time high in April, and the trend looks far from over.
This is leadership behavior.
The trend is up, momentum is strong, and it’s hard to argue with this type of breakout.
Live Cattle joins the breakout party 🐮
Live Cattle futures show a very similar picture to Feeder Cattle futures.
After years of consolidation beneath the 2014 highs, prices have broken out and surged to record levels.
What was once resistance is now support.
This confirms what we’re seeing across the broader livestock complex - strong structural breakouts from long-term bases.
Zooming into the Live Cattle breakout 🔍
A closer look at the daily chart shows how clean the breakout really is.
Live Cattle failed at 192 five different times over the last year. But now that level has been reclaimed, retested, and respected as support.
The price is hitting the 161.8% extension of the prior base, and it looks poised to blast through it and run towards our next target.
We want to buy Live Cattle futures on strength above 210, with a target of 240 over the coming 2-4 months.
Breakouts from decade-long bases don’t come around often.
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