The jobs report came in just strong enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines.
Since last month, the U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs to Nonfarm Payrolls. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wages showed minimal growth.
Together, that combination gave the bond market a clear signal: the economy is stable enough for the Fed to stay patient, and traders adjusted their rate cut expectations accordingly.
And the market reacted quickly. Yields on short-term bonds jumped, with the 2-year leading the move higher. The reason was simple: traders no longer expect the Fed to cut rates in June. Now, they’re betting on July.
So bond prices fell, especially on the short end of the curve. Long bonds declined too, but not as much. That’s a textbook bear flattener: when short-term rates rise faster than long-term ones.
But this wasn’t a crisis. It was the market doing its job.
T-Notes got hit hard, yet there was no panic in the stock market. This was a clean repricing. The Fed now has breathing room — and the market knows it.
Next week brings more data, a Fed meeting, and major Treasury auctions. But Friday’s move made one thing clear:
The economy isn’t breaking, and Powell doesn’t need to step in.
The bond market has already made the adjustment. Now it’s the Fed’s turn to catch up.
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