Bonds and the Buck Know First

Everything in markets is connected. Not in theory—in function.

Think of the market like a human body. Your brain is at the center—processing data, storing memories, sending signals. But none of that matters unless the message reaches your limbs. That’s what nerves are for. They carry the signal. They make the body move.

Without that connection, you become rigid. Movement slows. Response times lag. Eventually, the whole system breaks down.

Markets work the same way and the bond market is the brain.

It holds the signal. It processes information about liquidity, risk, and expectations. The shape of the yield curve can tell you whether credit is expanding or contracting. Whether investors are optimistic or defensive. Whether the economy is warming up—or starting to overheat.

The bond market doesn’t just exist alongside stocks and commodities. It speaks to them. It sets the tone. It sends the signal.

If there’s enough liquidity, risk assets rally. Stocks rise and credit flows.

That’s a healthy system.

Too much liquidity?

That’s when things move too fast and commodities spike.

Stocks fly. Everything runs—until it doesn’t. The overheating phase feels good, right up until the body collapses from exhaustion. That’s when corrections show up. Sometimes, it’s a full-blown bear market.

But there’s another part of this market brain: the dollar.

If bonds are in the left hemisphere, the dollar is on the right. It connects to the same systems but sends different signals. A weaker dollar loosens global conditions. It pushes capital into commodities, gold, and international equities. It shifts the flow—just like a neural signal rerouted down a different path.

The bond market and the dollar are not separate conversations. They are two sides of the same brain. They move the body of global markets in tandem.

And if you want to understand where the world is going, you start by listening to the signals they’re sending.