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All Star Options

Stops Are Areas, Not Always Exact Prices

May 6, 2025

In trading, we’re taught early on that risk management is everything. “Use stop losses!” they say. And I agree. But what I’ve come to learn—especially when trading options in volatile markets—is that stops aren’t always about a precise line in the sand. Sometimes, they’re more like zones. Areas. Regions on the chart where you start paying close attention, rather than pulling the trigger at the first sign of trouble.

This came into sharp focus recently as volatility spiked. When the market threw its “tariff tantrum” and everything went haywire, we saw stocks and indices swinging wildly in both directions. On any given day, the same stock could be up 5% in the morning and down 5% by the afternoon. It was chaos. And chaos doesn’t play nicely with rigid stop-loss levels.

I had several long positions on during that time—mostly defined-risk spreads with expirations a few months out. The kind of trades that allow for a bit more breathing room. Yet many of these positions would repeatedly dip below my stop levels… only to recover just hours later. Over and over. A less experienced version of me might have panicked and bailed the moment my mental stop was breached. But I’ve...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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Currency Report: New Trend in The New Dollar

May 6, 2025

The Taiwan New Dollar just posted its sharpest two-day rally against the US dollar—ever.

This wasn’t just any rally. It was a vertical move—TWD/USD spiked over 10% in two sessions, tagging a near three-year high in the process.

It caught the entire FX complex leaning the wrong way. It was statistically off the charts

This wasn’t a six-sigma move. Or even ten. We're talking fifteen sigma. That’s what quants call an “impossible” outcome. A market move so extreme that it breaks the model. 

 

A 10% move might not turn heads in a tape where spec. growth stocks like HIMS or PLTR can move that and more intraday—but for a currency pair? It’s seismic. Especially when the pair has been dozing in a multi-year falling wedge. 

That pattern? It just resolved higher. The breakout came right at the apex of the wedge—when no one was paying attention.

 

With this kind of volatility comes a forced unwind. Exporters, insurers, speculators—everyone caught leaning the wrong way gets squeezed out the door. Fast.

So what’s behind it—but more...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 5/6/25

May 6, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in TLT.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. Closed XLV at Profit Target.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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The Strazza Letter

Going Out On Top

May 5, 2025

The greatest investor the world has ever seen announced his retirement this weekend. 

Warren Buffett delivered the news at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting on Saturday that he’ll be stepping down on January 1, 2026.

Naturally, this was the big story of the day. But all I keep hearing is that the stock is down 5% on the news.

You gotta be kidding me. 

JC and I have been joking for years that when this moment comes, you buy the dip. And now that it’s here, we’re doing it.

So, let’s tell the real story of Buffett and Berkshire shares these days.

What all the headlines aren’t telling you is that Buffett literally just went out on top in the most GOAT fashion. Let me explain…

Berkshire closed at fresh all-time highs Friday.

Only a handful of stocks in the S&P 500 could say the same.

The market just suffered a swift and steep drawdown. It's the worst of the entire cycle. A lot of stocks have been absolutely crushed. But not this one. 

Not only that, but BRK also recently made...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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[Gold Rush] This Commodity Isn't Dead, It's Just Sleeping 😴

May 5, 2025

We're amidst an epic bull market for precious metals. And while gold and silver get all the headlines, we think Palladium could end up being the sneaky outperformer in this cycle.

We laid out the case in February: Commercial hedgers were loading up at record levels

That only happens when Palladium is dirt cheap, which it certainly is right now. The price is still trading more than 70% below the 2022 peak.

Price has done nothing for months. 

But that might be exactly what we want.

Here's the seasonality setup for Palladium 👇
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The Minor Leaguers (05-05-2025)

May 5, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 5/5/25

May 5, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLI position.
  3. Closed XLE at Profit Target.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Run It Back

May 5, 2025

Today's trade is a similar trade to the one I did in Kingsoft Computing last week. It's a bet on a previous highfligher, who had it's legs kicked out from under it during the recent market turmoil, that appears to be setting up to resume its former prominence.

Alfonso’s Daily Note,
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Speculative Growth Is Heating Up

May 4, 2025

The stock market just closed higher for 9 straight sessions.

We’re seeing a textbook V-shaped recovery unfold, especially with major indexes and sectors reclaiming key levels and repairing the damage from last month’s selloff.

When we look under the surface, the more speculative, high-beta areas of the market are starting to wake up and look ready to catch higher.

We call that risk appetite. And that’s exactly what our custom speculative growth index was designed to track. 

 

After a sharp pullback, the riskiest stocks in the market are bouncing right where they should.

Former resistance has turned into support. It’s the polarity principle at its finest. 

...
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177K Reasons the Fed Can Wait

May 4, 2025

The jobs report came in just strong enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines.

Since last month, the U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs to Nonfarm Payrolls. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wages showed minimal growth. 

Together, that combination gave the bond market a clear signal: the economy is stable enough for the Fed to stay patient, and traders adjusted their rate cut expectations accordingly.

 

And the market reacted quickly. Yields on short-term bonds jumped, with the 2-year leading the move higher. The reason was simple: traders no longer expect the Fed to cut rates in June. Now, they’re betting on July.

Goldman and Barclays just said the quiet part out loud: the Fed doesn’t need to move yet.

So bond prices fell, especially on the short end of the curve. Long bonds declined too, but not as much. That’s a textbook bear flattener: when short-term rates rise faster than long-term ones.

...

The Strazza Letter

Don't Miss a Beat!

May 3, 2025

One of the things I do on Saturday mornings is catch up on the earnings stories and reactions I might have missed during the week.

And it’s actually a lot easier for me to do these days…

Over the past year, we’ve built an earnings engine complete with various internal scans and custom indicators.

We like to build the tools we need here at All Star Charts. It’s how we got our start many years ago. And it will always be a big part of our culture and success as a publisher.

So I’m proud to say we finally have everything investors need from an earnings standpoint.

And you can get it for free right now as we’ve launched a demo version of what we call the Beat Report. 

We’re tracking all the reports each quarter and identifying the names with the best earnings trends and momentum. We send a note each day detailing all the earnings-based movers and shakers. We break it all down for you and highlight the best stuff we find. 

But the way we do it is a bit non-traditional. No one else is doing this analysis in this way. 

We don’t care so...