From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This morning the market popped.

Then it faded most of the day until about 1:00 p.m. ET, when the rally started, right off of support.

$SPY dipped below 396.76, and then it bounced from there.

This is the video recording of the February 23rd, 2023, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

2/23/23 2:00 PM ET

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We had a resting GTC order filled in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

It’s victory at sea across currency markets. But it's not stopping the US dollar from cutting through the chop...

Check it out!

The most underrated element of technical analysis has to be relative strength.

It's impossible to outperform your benchmark if you own assets that are underperforming.

Much of this work is grounded in the overarching notion that asset prices trend while volatility mean-reverts.

But humans behave as if it's the opposite.

Relative strength is merely denominating prices in a different asset than the native currency. Like price trends, relative strength also exhibits a tendency to trend, rather than mean-revert.

So, what does that mean?

The most significant insider transaction on today's Hot List is a Form 4 filing by Mark J. Erceg, the CFO of Newell Brands Inc $NWL.

Erceg reported a purchase of $999,833 in NWL.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

As I write this note, the only reason the market is up is because of $NVDA’s earnings.

We have GDP today, and that might change the tune. Hopefully, we continue to hold $SPY 400.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche

The NAAIM exposure index surpassed its August high last month and has been on either side of its April high over the past two weeks. With price action cooling, active investment managers may regret their eagerness to increase equity exposure.    

Why It Matters: Active managers led the recent shift from pessimism to optimism. While sentiment overall doesn’t look ready to boil over at this point, there are some hot spots that could benefit from cooling. The NAAIM data, which has outpaced the recovery in price, is in that category. The broader sentiment risk is that a period of sideways price action leads reluctant optimists to turn bearish again. At this stage in the cycle we need bulls to have a bull market and a return to pessimism would likely add to downward pressure on price. This is all the more likely if volatility remains undiminished (only 4 years in the past quarter century began with more 1% swings in the S&P 500 than we have experienced so far this year) and breadth meaningfully...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

$SPY struggled all day to stay above the 400 level.

Now we have support at 396.76. If we break that, we can see 393.20.