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International Hall of Famers (01-20-2023)

January 20, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall Of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

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[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend: Peak Employment

January 20, 2023

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Firms are still hiring but with average weekly hours being curtailed, aggregate hours worked appear to have peaked in Q4.

Why It Matters: Talk of a soft landing has intensified, but the data paint a different picture. Real spending peaked in Q1. Housing starts in Q2. Industrial production in Q3. Payrolls are still expanding and layoffs are near historically low levels. Given the structural imbalance between unfilled jobs and unemployed workers, those metrics are unlikely to be useful indicators of what lies ahead for the economy. Don’t even start with the unemployment rate, which has long been considered a lagging indicator. Rather than firing workers who were hard to hire in the first place, firms are keeping their payrolls largely intact. They are responding to softening demand by curtailing hours worked. Payrolls and initial jobless claims are noise in this environment. The news is that the economy is weakening, inflation is lingering, and the Fed is still raising rates.       

Abdiel Ups Its APPN Stake

January 20, 2023

The most significant transaction on today’s Hot List is a Form 4 filing from Brent Baird.

Baird disclosed a purchase of 11,661 shares of Servotronics Inc $SVT, equivalent to $130,671.

The Prior Cycle's Highs

January 20, 2023

A funny thing happened last summer.

Financials as a sector successfully retested the highs in price from just before the start of the Great Financial Crisis.

Look at the 2007 peak in Financials. After testing that level and failing in 2018 and 2020, prices ultimately broke out.

Last summer was the retest.

Former Resistance turned into Support:

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Bond Investors Embrace Risk

January 19, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley

It’s impossible to ignore – investors are reaching for risk.

Biotech stocks are catching higher. Copper futures are working on their tenth up-day in a row. Even the Emerging Market HY Bond ETF $EMHY is breaking to 7-month highs as it completes a multi-month base. 

And don’t forget about Silver! Gold’s crazy cousin has proven by far the best-performing asset since the US dollar peaked last fall. Strength among these market areas indicates a healthy risk appetite.

I can’t overlook these signs of a constructive bottoming process, especially considering the next chart…

Check out the Emerging Market Bond ETF $EMB relative to the US Treasuries ETF $IEF:

There’s plenty to unpack here…

First, the EMB/IEF ratio is challenging fresh 7-month highs after posting a higher high and a higher low last fall. A bearish to bullish trend reversal is underway for this important risk-on ratio.

You can add this to the growing list of...