This is a fun one. I got to sit down with Paul Ciana to talk about all things Fixed Income, Commodities and Currencies. Paul is now the Chief Global FICC Technical Strategist and Director of Research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But in the early days, him and I used to study for our CMTs together back in 2006.

What's nice about this is that in his current position, and for 10 years at Bloomberg prior to his 5 years at BofA, he's had the opportunity to speak to many of the largest portfolio managers in the world. I want to know what he's learned from all those conversations!

Paul always gives great perspective and as you know, the macro view carries a big weighting throughout our process. So this episode really hit home.

I took advantage and just hit him with all my favorite questions and topics in the FICC world. And he just chuckled and happily answered most of them.

This was great! I hope you enjoy...

You notice how investors often like to overstay their welcome?

The people throwing the party give them plenty of opportunities to get out. The music stops playing. The food is already gone. The lights even get turned off.

But some people still choose to stay, almost as if they have no where else to go.

And then they sit around wondering what happened?

"Oh, the DJ going home meant the party was over?"

"What do you mean they're not ordering any more food?"

"Who turned out the lights?"

These are what we call "Bag Holders".

They're an important part of the market cycle, because these are the people who are buying all the shares that the rest of us need to sell, so we can head over down the block to the much better party. The one that's just getting going.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Stocks looking at a year two market. Stocks looking at a year of two markets. Economic surprises remain a tailwind for now but data struggling to keep up with expectations.

Cyclical value sectors remain in their leadership positions. New highs last week in Materials, Industrials & Financials helped pace the market, and rally participation with these sectors remains robust. The rotation out of leadership from the growth sectors can make it a challenging environment for passive investors. Technology, Discretionary, and Communication Services make up 50% of the market cap of the S&P 500, and the index could struggle to see sustained strength if these areas are not participating. Defensive areas like Utilities & Consumer Staples are buried at the bottom of the rankings. 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

The bullish picture still lies as a structural backdrop.

But now, we're seeing mixed signals as many areas have become increasingly vulnerable in recent weeks. This is all taking place as defensive assets have found a footing for the first time in over a year, while risk-on assets approach logical levels of supply.

Recent weakness has been particularly isolated in former leadership groups, like Small-Caps and Growth-heavy areas. 

But at the same time, Value and Cyclicals have continued to show resiliency as the Commodity complex suggests risk-taking behavior.

Long story short, things have become more bifurcated than they have done in a while...

Let's jump into our US index table.

...

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts and Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Alt Season is still very much alive and well.

In February, we did a deep dive into the wide world of crypto assets outside of Bitcoin. This turned out to be quite timely as many of these "alt-coins" have booked significant gains in the time since.

It's no longer just Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and some others. There are thousands of cryptocurrencies out there now!

As this new asset class continues to grow and blossom, we continue to pay close attention to the leadership within the Crypto complex.

The latest Young Aristocrats report dropped on Friday last week. If you love dividends combined with momentum (who wouldn't?), then this report is always a must read.

Banks of all sizes have been a bright spot for us lately as we're currently enjoying gains in Morgan Stanley $MS and the Regional Banks ETF $KRE.

Well, this week's YA report highlighted a couple more banks with attractive setups and one in particular looks like a great setup to play with straight long call options.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. We can then put these near-term developments into the context of the big picture and glean insights into the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

• Procyclical Commodities led again this week.
  • Copper was up over 6.41% and closed the week at fresh all-time highs.
  • Lumber had another monster week, gaining over 12% but is at an extreme daily momentum reading of 91.
• The biggest loser of the week was the Volatility index falling over 10%
• New highs continue to be the theme across all timeframes, particularly from...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

One of the main themes we’ve seen unfold as the market has rallied off its recovery lows from last year is the rotation into value stocks and more cyclical areas of equity markets. We’re seeing it around the world too, and it’s also responsible for driving many other relative trends like that between small and large-caps and US vs ex-US equities.

Our line in the sand for the value over growth thesis to remain intact is 1.70 in the large-cap ratio (IWF/IWD). It’s that simple. And price has been trapped below it ever since breaking down earlier this year. Additionally, we’re also eyeing Tech vs Financials as well as the small-cap growth vs value ratio for confirmation of what we’re seeing from large-caps. Both collapsed lower to end the week. Not only are they beneath the levels we’ve been watching (3.70 in XLK/XLF and 1.90 in IWO/IWN), but they also...

We've been talking about this rotation out of Growth Stocks and into Value Stocks since last year. The trend here has been very strong.

We keep seeing this all over. Check this out for more.

Another chart that stood out this weekend was the number of new 52-week highs on the NYSE, which has much more exposure to value and much less growth.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq, which is almost all Growth, isn't seeing these new highs at all.

No one wants them.

So commodities seem like they're in the mood to rally! We've seen Base Metals have their fair share of moments in the spotlight, but what about the truly shiny commodities? Where are Gold and Silver off to, next? Or are they consolidating and quietly hatching a plan to break out soon?

Here's an update on what the (presently) less popular metals are doing.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest "Minor Leaguers" report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this Small-Cap focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

Ultimately, to make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, you must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters.

Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players only.

The idea is to catch the strongest names while they're still small and have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climb up the ranks to the big leagues, just imagine the returns. We're looking at 5-10x moves just to break into large-cap land!

And what better time than now to launch a small-cap-focused column?...

This week we're looking at two long setups in the Pharma sector. With Nifty Pharma breaking out above its resistance of 13,500, a couple of stocks that we've been tracking for quite some time now have also followed through with a breakout.

Let's take a look at these names and track their levels going forward.