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Mixed Signals From World Markets

March 22, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

The same strong rotational currents that have been in place in the US since last summer have finally begun to spill over to International stocks... but, not all of them.

For the first time in about a decade, evidence suggests that stock markets around the world have finally built a strong foundation relative to their US counterparts, and might just be ready for a sustained period of outperformance.

How big the move will be and how long it will last are always some of the most difficult variables to predict. We can merely position ourselves accordingly based on the information we do have, and then be keenly aware of new data points as they come in, and constantly re-evaluate and adjust our outlook as appropriate.

As for the potential structural bull-to-bear reversal in the long-running trend of outperformance from US stocks... the seeds have definitely been planted for such a development to occur.

Now, we can only sit...

Money Game Podcast: NO! Not Everything Happens For A Reason (EP.18)

March 22, 2021

In the latest episode of The Money Game, Phil and I talk about the old cliché, 'Everything happens for a reason'.

It's funny because it doesn't. Not everything happens for a reason. What's the reason?

It's hard for humans to accept the element of randomness. Sure, good things can happen after a tough breakup or losing your job. Like you can meet your future wife or start a successful business, all after what seemed like a negative event in your life. But connecting the 2 dots is silly.

Now, it's perfectly natural for us as humans to want to do that, but it doesn't make it right.

We inherently want to learn, and how I see, the best ways to learn are from experiences. Some of the most important lessons I've learned came the hard way, for sure. And I can think back to those moments and I'm now thankful for them. But they certainly didn't happen specifically so I could use that information to my advantage today. They were just events that happened, that fortunately I learned from.

I think to believe that...

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Under The Hood (03-22-2021)

March 22, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our “latest Under The Hood” column for the week ended March 19, 2021. As a reminder, this column will be published bi-weekly moving forward, and rotated on-and-off with our new Minor Leaguers column.

In this column, we analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: A list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers… there is a lot of overlap.

The bottom line is there are a million ways to skin this cat. Relying on our entire arsenal of data makes us...

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

March 22, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Small-caps hit pause but remain market leaders. Another breadth thrust shows rally participation remains robust. Bond yields are digesting recent rise, but the path of least resistance remains higher.

The Technology sector continued its descent toward the bottom of the relative strength rankings. It dropped to its lowest ranking since mid-2016 and fell out of the sector leadership group (which based on a three-week smoothing of the current ranking) for the first time in two years. Technology is joined in the cellar by Utilities, Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary. Cyclical value leadership remains intact. Even though small-cap groups led the way lower last week, our industry-group rankings continue to show leadership from small-caps and mid-caps.     

Agri Commodities Check Up

March 22, 2021

We've been talking about base metals and precious metals for quite some time now, highlighting the levels to track and trends to watch out for.

It's time to look at what's happening in the agricultural commodities space as well. In the past week, we saw some good moves in two names in particular and we're here to discuss just that.

Are You Trying To Make Money Or Save The World?

March 21, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

What's the FIRST question investors should ask themselves and have a clear and concrete answer to before putting money in the market?

It is literally step one. The cornerstone of any strategy or trading plan...

What is my objective?

Every investor should examine this thoughtfully and keep it top of mind to ensure that their investment decisions are aligned with their investment goals.

Usually, the answer is pretty simple and comes down to maximizing returns, or more importantly minimizing losses, in a way that fits within each individual's unique preferences.

But as we'll explore in this post, this isn't always the case, and sometimes it can be a bit nuanced - as is the case with Environmental, Social, and Governance investment strategies.

So as an exercise let's put ourselves in the shoes of ESG investors and ask a few simple questions...

Communicating In This Market

March 21, 2021

One of the charts that stood out the most to me during last week's Conference Call was the relative strength in Communications. While Tech and Discretionary corrected over the prior month, Communications marched on:

We saw that relative strength once again this week with Communications up and the Nasdaq down yet again.

And we're not just seeing new all-time highs on an absolute basis either. Relative to the S&P500, this thing continues to run:

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report

March 21, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza 

Don't miss this weeks Momentum Report; our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector and Industry Group level. As a reminder, we analyze this shorter-term data within the context of the structural trends at play.

 

Long Wood

March 20, 2021

In case you hadn't heard, Commodity prices are soaring. The CRB Commodities Index has practically doubled over the past year.

And while sure, many assets are up a lot over the past 12 months, it's the fact that the Commodities Index is above the 2016 lows that makes it a big deal for me. Same with interest rates. If the US 10yr Yield and CRB Index are above those lows, then inflation is here baby!

Get used to it.

We're seeing it across the intermarket landscape.

And speaking of landscape, did you see the Global Timber & Forestry Index breaking out to new all-time highs?