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The Breakout We’ve Been Waiting For

The biggest weekly rally since 2020 confirms a powerful shift in the primary trend.

By Sam Gatlin, Jason Perz

March 6, 2026

Over the past several weeks in Commodities Weekly, we’ve been laying out a very clear thesis: energy is in the early stages of a major leadership cycle.

First, we focused on the oil and gas complex, highlighting the powerful setups across the sector.

Then we expanded the conversation to include nuclear and solar, making the case that this energy cycle could broaden across multiple power-generation sources.

But at the center of this theme has always been Crude Oil itself.

And this week, black gold delivered the kind of price action that tends to define the early stages of a new primary trend.

Crude Oil futures just posted their best one-week performance since 2020, rallying more than 30%.

These types of explosive momentum bursts rarely occur in isolation...

More often than not, they appear at the beginning of sustained directional moves, particularly when they coincide with major structural breakouts.

That’s exactly what we’re seeing now.

On the weekly chart, Crude Oil gapped decisively above a multi-year downtrend line that had been containing prices for several years.

Not only that, but the gap held throughout the week, and the price continued to push higher in the days that followed, ultimately closing near the highs of the range.

This type of behavior, a gap through resistance followed by immediate follow-through, is about as bullish as it gets from a technical perspective.

It suggests that supply at those levels has been fully absorbed and that buyers are now firmly in control.

But the significance of this move goes beyond just a trendline break.

When we zoom out to the longer-term chart, we see that crude also gapped above a major level of polarity, a former resistance zone that later acted as support.

This level sits right around the 2020 peak, the same area that preceded one of the most historic crashes ever witnessed in Crude Oil futures.

Markets have long memories. Levels that once defined major turning points tend to matter for years.

And now that the price has reclaimed that zone with authority, it dramatically alters the long-term technical landscape.

In other words, this wasn’t just a short-term breakout. It was a structural one.

From here, the next logical destination is the 161.8% extension of the 2020 decline around 102. That area should act as the first major magnet as momentum continues to build.

But if crude can sustain a move above that level, the upside potential expands dramatically.

Above 102, the path of least resistance for Crude Oil futures is higher toward 161.

That may sound aggressive, but the long-term cycle in crude suggests the move could extend even further.

In fact, we’ve been discussing for quite some time the possibility that this cycle could ultimately carry prices toward the 250 region.

Whenever we bring up that number, the reaction is usually the same: disbelief.

People assume it’s impossible.

They argue the global economy couldn’t handle it.

But markets don’t move based on what feels comfortable.

They move based on supply, demand, and the structural dynamics reflected in price.

And right now, the charts are suggesting a much larger move may be underway.

To be clear, we’re not saying crude is going straight to 250 tomorrow. But what we are saying is that the conditions for a major multi-year advance appear to be falling into place.

This week’s explosive breakout may very well mark the beginning of that next chapter.

And if that’s the case, the energy trade we’ve been discussing for weeks may still be in its very early innings.

What are you seeing in commodities? Let us know what you think. We love hearing from you!

Commitment of Traders Highlights

Energy - Commercial hedgers added more than 700 contracts to their largest net-long Natural Gas position in years. Historically, massive buying from the smart money has come near significant bottoms.
Currencies - Commercials added another 12,250 contracts to their largest net-short Australian dollar position in years. This will likely lead to lower AUD prices relative to the USD.
Softs - Commercial hedgers trimmed nearly 9,000 contracts from their largest net-long Sugar position ever. We think this sweet commodity is near a major low.