Positioning for the Next Leg Higher

We kicked off this week’s Monday Money Moves video by zooming out, because if you don’t understand the environment, you have no business allocating capital within it.

What we’re seeing right now is exactly how these cycles are supposed to unfold.

Gold led, then copper confirmed, and now energy is catching up.

That’s the sequence that has kept us on the right side of the Supercycle for years.

And if you’ve been with us since it began in March 2024, then you already know, this is how major commodity expansions begin.

The important takeaway isn’t just what is happening. It’s that price told us this was coming long before the headlines did. 

Energy stocks were already breaking out before geopolitical tensions escalated. Money was flowing, and the market was tipping its hand.

That’s the game we’re playing.

From there, we moved on to two of the most important macro inputs we track: the dollar and the yield curve.

Right now, the curve is steepening, telling us that liquidity is expanding. And when liquidity expands, the dollar tends to weaken.

That’s fuel for the Supercycle.

At the same time, we’re seeing signals beneath the surface, such as the 30-year minus 10-year spread, suggesting the market has been under short-term pressure. That aligns with the recent drawdown we saw in areas like metals through February and March.

But zoom out, and the structure remains intact.

This still looks like a pause within an uptrend, not the end of one.

Then we got to what really matters: the setups.

The CRB Index just triggered a classic Bollinger Band squeeze breakout, one of the most powerful signals in all of technical analysis. 

We love these setups so much that Jason runs a system in his fund that is based purely on these signals.

This is the kind of environment where trends accelerate.

And that’s exactly the backdrop we want to be operating in.