As we've discussed here plenty, this year is very different than last year.

Remember in 2023 when breakouts would stick and prices of stocks and ETFs would keep heading higher?

That's not happening these days.

It's actually been the opposite.

The bigger question for me is whether these new trends are here to stay, or if at some point the stock market reverts to those longer underlying uptrends that got us here.

Another question I have is which mining companies are going to lead their groups as metals continue to make new highs.

Here's a good way to view it. This is Gold breaking out of a decade+ long base to new all-time highs, resuming its secular uptrend from the 2000s.

How's the stock market correction treating you so far?

The Nasdaq100 is only up 1% this year, underperforming a typical year for the market by a long shot.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is flat for 2024.

The Russell2000 Small-cap Index $IWM is still down this year.

Emerging Markets $EEM are down.

Meanwhile Gold is up 15%. Silver is up 20%.

In fact, the Dow/Gold ratio just hit new 3-year lows this week:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The media is showering gold and precious metals with attention.

I get it. New all-time highs capture eyes. 

But you can’t leave copper and base metals out of the story…

Copper is ripping to its highest level in almost two years, posting a 15% year-to-date gain:

For perspective, the S&P 500 is up less than 5% since January 1.

Our next profit target of roughly 4.85 is now in focus. A decisive break above this new objective sends copper toward new all-time highs and the psychologically important five-dollar level.  

Perhaps the headlines will show Dr. Copper a little love if it trades at five bucks. (It’s tough being a commodity, even during a bullish supercycle.)

I won’t wait in vain for copper or any other base metal to gain recognition. Nevertheless, tin...

You can now add the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the list of indexes that are DOWN for the year so far.

I've argued many times that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the world's most important stock market index.

And while I'm not going to get into all the reasons again today, I'll just show you the chart of the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 60 years.

They move together...

This is the video recording of the April 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

Gold is one of the biggest winners so far in 2024.

But you can argue that it's really the commodities complex that is leading, and Gold is just one of them.

Check out the YTD returns here.

But the unwind in Gold stocks relative to other types of stocks looks to be just getting going.

Here is the Gold Bugs Index, which is loaded with all the top mining stocks, compared to the S&P500.

Notice the dramatic underperformance for so long, followed by a failed breakdown, and now the squeeze is just getting started:

I have three big ideas to take advantage of the current markets.

It's pretty obvious to everyone now that this year is not like last year.

Some people are pretending it still is.

You are welcome to lie to yourself if you'd like.

But I have the data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is flat so far in 2024. Small-caps are actually still down.

It's Crude Oil, Silver, Gold and Copper leading the way:

This just in: It's getting more expensive for people to get fat.

While many investors are more confused than ever looking at "CPI", whatever that is, the real inflation gauge is giving off a serious warning.

Inflation is here.

Look at the price of Big Macs at McDonald's skyrocketing:

The disaster for the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues.

Yesterday the Dow closed at a new 52-week low, priced in "Real" Money.

When you look at the Dow priced in Fiat Currency, it's also acting weak, actually DOWN since the start of February.

Here's what that looks like:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Nobody is paying attention to platinum.

It’s easy to overlook while gold shines and silver rips. But during the last commodity supercycle, platinum traded at a premium to the famous shiny yellow rock (and still does regarding retail jewelry).

Platinum was a powerhouse!

Check out gold and platinum futures overlaid going back to the 1970s:

Both peaked within a month of each other in the early 1980s and experienced rip-roaring rallies during the 2000s.

These two markets trend together over longer time frames. If this is an actual bull run for precious metals and an honest-to-god commodity supercycle, platinum will follow gold’s lead. 

In fact, it's breaking out of a multi-month base right now:

...

Earlier today we discussed the NYSE Oil Index breaking out to new all-time highs.

I really like this Index because, since it's NYSE-based, it includes energy stocks from all over the world.

As long as it trades on the NYSE, who cares if it's TOTAL in France, or Petrabras in Brazil?

These are the most important Oil stocks in the world and the index is hitting new all-time highs.

Here are all the stocks in the index relative to a variety of moving averages (getting longer-term moving from left to right on this chart below):

Think of Gold as the stable asset. And then stocks and other forex markets are just trading up and down relative to the price of Gold.

This week we discussed the fact that currencies all over the world have been losing their value, particularly relative to the price of Gold.

But this month now even the US Dollar has broken down relative to Gold.

You can get all those details here.

So if we're going to take the value of stocks and other fiat, and price it in Gold, then we should treat Crypto the same way.

Here are Bitcoin and Ethereum priced in "Real Money":